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ABC News 5/23/12
Strong Support for Gay Marriage Exceeds Str. Opposition
... Republicans and conservatives oppose gay marriage by more than 2-1, evangelical white Protestants by more than 3-1. While Democrats support it by more than 2-1, the balance is tipped, as is often the case, by independents: Fifty-eight percent support legalizing gay marriage; 43 percent do so strongly. ...

Washington Post 5/22
Obama, Romney in dead heat
After months of aggressive campaigning on jobs and the economy, President Obama and Mitt Romney, his likely Republican challenger, are locked in a dead heat over who could fix the problem foremost on voters' minds, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. ...

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NPR 5/21
What It's Like To Be Sick In America
In the lull between the Supreme Court arguments over the federal health overhaul law and the decision expected in June, we thought we'd ask Americans who actually use the health system quite a bit how they view the quality of care and its cost. … 3 of 4 people who were sick said cost is a very serious problem, and half said quality is a very serious problem. ...

Gallup 5/21
Obama, Romney Each Has Economic Strengths
Americans see the cost of healthcare, the federal budget deficit, and unemployment as the most important economic issues facing the country today, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll asking them to rate the importance of 10 such issues. ... Americans prefer President Obama over Mitt Romney for handling healthcare, while Romney is favored on the deficit and the two are about tied on unemployment. ...

New York Times: Catherine Rampell 5/19
The Beginning of the End of the Census?
The American Community Survey may be the most important government function you've never heard of, and it's in trouble. ... But last week, the Republican-led House voted to eliminate the survey altogether, on the grounds that the government should not be butting its nose into Americans' homes. ...

National Journal: Steven Shepard 5/18
Researcher Examines Variation of the 'Bradley Effect'
During the 2008 presidential campaign, analysts warned that then-Sen. Barack Obama's lead might be overstated by the polls as a result of the so-called "Bradley Effect" -- the social-desirability bias that occurs when white voters lie to pollsters about their intention to vote for a minority candidate. But a new research paper points to another element of such bias: In 2008, poll respondents were more likely to say they would vote for Obama if the person conducting the interview was African-American. ...

Pew 5/18
A Global 'No' To a Nuclear-Armed Iran
A 21-nation Pew Global Attitudes survey finds widespread opposition to Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. And in most countries, there is majority support among opponents of a nuclear-armed Iran for international economic sanctions to try to stop Tehran's weapons program. ...

Gallup 5/18
In Presidential Election, Age Is Factor Only Among Whites
Barack Obama maintains a substantial edge over Mitt Romney among voters younger than age 40, while Romney wins among those 40 and older. ...

The Herald: Shawn Cetrone 5/17
Ex-S.C. GOP official asks for Winthrop's polling records
After Republican criticism of Winthrop University’s widely published surveys of public opinion, a former state GOP official has asked the school to turn over all records related to the last three Winthrop Polls, including respondents' identities. ...

TIPP Online 5/17
Obama Maintains 3-Point Advantage
In the latest Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll conducted after President Obama announced his support for gay marriage, the President continues to maintain a 3-point lead over Governor Romney. ...

Mark Mellman 5/16
A poll question I hate
I hate questions asking whether people are "more or less likely to vote" for a candidate based on some factor. I admit to using them, but rarely, and under some form of duress. ...

David Hill 5/16
Obama is crazy for his base
As a pollster and political consultant, even for the other political party, it's easy for me -- in a perverse sort of way -- to admire President Obama's all-in bid to recapture the affections of his liberal Democratic base voter. ...

Gallup 5/16
National Mood a Drag on Obama's Re-Election Prospects
Some six months before voters head to the polls to choose the next president of the United States, Gallup finds several indicators of the economic and political climate holding steady at levels that could be troublesome for President Barack Obama. ...

Chicago Tribune 5/15
Chicagoans like Emanuel's job performance
Chicagoans generally approve of Mayor Rahm Emanuel's job performance but are taking a wait-and-see attitude on whether he's making the city a better place to live, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows. ...

Pew 5/15
Assessing the Representativeness of Opinion Surveys
... A new study by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds that, despite declining response rates, telephone surveys that include landlines and cell phones and are weighted to match the demographic composition of the population continue to provide accurate data on most political, social and economic measures. ...

Washington Post: Jon Cohen 5/15
Voters split on Obama's gay marriage announcement
Voters divide straight down the middle on President Obama's recent statement that he supports allowing gays and lesbians to get married, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. As with the issue itself, views of the president's major announcement last week are closely related to partisanship, education and age, with Democrats, more highly educated and younger adults generally supportive of Obama's move. ...

New York Times 5/14
Poll Sees Gay Marriage Support Motivated by Politics
Most Americans suspect that President Obama was motivated by politics, not policy, when he declared his support for same-sex marriage, according to a new poll released on Monday, suggesting the impact of his decision was undercut by the unplanned way it became public. ...

CBS News 5/14
Most Americans support same-sex unions
A new CBS News/New York Times Poll shows a solid majority of Americans support legal recognition for same-sex couples - though not necessarily through the official act of marriage - and the number of people who do support full marriage rights for gay and lesbian couples is significantly higher among younger generations. ...

Gallup 5/14
Acceptance of Gay/Lesbian Relations Is the New Normal
The slight majority of American adults, 54%, consider gay or lesbian relations morally acceptable. Public acceptance of gay/lesbian relations as morally acceptable grew slowly but steadily from 38% in 2002 to 56% in 2011 and is now holding at the majority level. ...

Bill Galston, Brookings 5/11
Six Months To Go
Between now and November 6, the people will ask themselves whether President Obama's stewardship of the economy has met their hopes -- a judgment that will depend heavily on the performance of the economy over the next six months. If the people decide that the president has done well enough, he will be reelected, whatever Mitt Romney says or does. ...

New York Times 5/11
Annual Census at Risk in House Budget Bill
One casualty of the sweeping budget bill that passed the House on Thursday was an annual survey conducted by the Census Bureau, a rich source of data that social researchers say is critical to modern demography. ...

Gallup 5/11
Six in 10 Say Obama Marriage View Won't Sway Vote
A majority of Americans, 60%, say President Barack Obama's newly announced support for same-sex marriage will make no difference to their vote. ...

Ronald Brownstein 5/10
Understanding Voters on Gay Issue: It's One for the Ages
One potential complication for President Obama's embrace of gay marriage is that minority voters at the core of the modern Democratic electoral coalition have usually resisted the idea more than whites. But that gap is narrowing-driven mostly by the same process of shifting generational attitudes evident among whites. ...

Public Religion Research Institute 5/10
Evangelical Voters Strongly Support Romney
Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney holds a nearly 50-point lead over President Barack Obama (68 percent vs. 19 percent) among white evangelical Protestant voters, a new survey finds. ...

Resurgent Republic 5/10
Electoral fundamentals favor Republicans
... These results present a different perspective on the two candidates than much of the political punditry. It is Barack Obama, not Mitt Romney, who is viewed as outside the ideological mainstream. ...

Gallup 5/10
In Tight Race, Obama, Romney Have Core Support Groups
Because the overwhelming majority of nonwhite registered voters in the U.S. vote Democratic -- 77% currently support Barack Obama for president -- likely Republican nominee Mitt Romney must do well among white registered voters in order to offset this advantage. ...

Ronald Brownstein 5/9
Obama's Gay Marriage Leap of Faith
... Obama's shift on gay marriage remains politically significant because many Democratic leaders have resisted embracing it for the same reasons the party has lost enthusiasm for gun control and blinked at fully pursuing comprehensive immigration reform. In each case, the party's primary fear has been losing support among the most socially-conservative elements of the white electorate: blue-collar, older and rural whites. ...

Gallup 5/9
Gender Gap in Obama Approval Constant Since Term Began
Women have consistently been more likely than men to say they approve of President Barack Obama's job performance since his administration began in January 2009. ...

National Journal 5/9
Public Split On Dream Act, Rubio Alternative
... The latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll found that a solid, if slightly diminishing, majority of Americans support key elements of Arizona's anti-illegal-immigration law that the White House is seeking to overturn. But the survey also found that a preponderant majority of Americans reject the option of deporting all of the estimated 11 million immigrants here illegally. ...

Gallup 5/8
Obama Has Big Likability Edge Over Romney
Registered voters are nearly twice as likely to say Barack Obama, rather than Mitt Romney, is the more likable of the two presidential candidates. ...

National Journal 5/8
Key Groups Support Student Loans, VAWA
The Obama administration and congressional Democrats have spent much of this spring criticizing Hill Republicans for what they say is the GOP's opposition to legislative initiatives including the Violence Against Women Act, student-loan subsidies, and the Paycheck Fairness Act. A new United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll shows that Democrats enjoy popular support for these efforts. ...

Pew 5/8
Egyptians Embrace Democracy and Religion in Political Life
Despite economic difficulties and political uncertainty, Egyptians remain upbeat about the course of the nation and prospects for progress. ...

Gallup 5/8
Half of Americans Support Legal Gay Marriage
Fifty percent of Americans believe same-sex marriages should be recognized by law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages -- down slightly from 53% last year, but marking only the second time in Gallup's history of tracking this question that at least half of Americans have supported legal same-sex marriage. ...

Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber (pdf) 5/7
The Race to November Begins
... In the 2012 election, the data certainly points to an angry Independent vote that will not be favorable to President Obama. While the President is upside down with his job approval on a majority of issue areas, with independents, his disapproval measurements are higher than average, and in some cases significantly higher. ...

Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Kristin Pondel (pdf) 5/7
Battleground 2012
... Democrats face twin challenges: first, securing credit for their economic successes while extending the debate over a level playing field for America's middle class beyond taxes to include robust plans for further job creation, and second, bringing Romney's record and vision for the future into stark relief. ....

TIPP Online 5/7
Obama Lead Over Romney Narrows To 3 Points
In the latest Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll, the race between President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney tightens. Obama leads leads 46% to 43%. ...

USA Today 5/6
Swing states' poll: Big challenges loom for Obama, Romney
The first USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States Poll since the GOP settled on a presumptive nominee shows big challenges for each side: Mitt Romney in generating enthusiasm and a personal connection with his supporters, and Barack Obama in convincing Americans he should be trusted to manage a fragile economy. ...

New York Times 5/6
9 Swing States, Critical to Presidential Race, Are Mixed Lot
... With just over six months until Election Day, an analysis of the emerging electoral map by The New York Times found that the outcome would most likely be determined by how well President Obama and Mitt Romney perform in nine tossup states. ...

Howey Politics Indiana 5/4
Fred Yang: Lugar is likely to be defeated next Tuesday
... I'd argue that, even before the third-party ads, the "outside" polls, and even the Lugar/Mourdock campaigns themselves, the outcome was settled by two simple actions that happened months ago. First, Richard Lugar decided to seek reelection, and second, Richard Mourdock emerged as his ONLY challenger. ...

Washington Post 5/3
Obama leads Romney as campaigns converge on Virginia
President Obama leads former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney in Virginia, but voters in the commonwealth are evenly divided on the White House's major policies, a new Washington Post poll shows. ...

Western University 5/1
New study shows 'undecideds' not impartial
... New research by a team of psychologists from Canada, Italy and Switzerland shows that undecideds are not impartial, but instead reveal a preference for information that confirms their gut reactions. ...

Pew 5/1
Supreme Court Favorability Reaches New Low
Public assessments of the Supreme Court have reached a quarter-century low. Unlike evaluations over much of the past decade, there is very little partisan divide. ...

Gallup 5/1
Obama Averages 47% Job Approval in April
President Obama's job approval rating averaged 47% in April, Obama's highest monthly average since last May, when he averaged 50% after U.S. Marines killed Osama bin Laden in a May 2, 2011, raid. ...

Frank Luntz 4/27
Five myths about conservative voters
... I can tell you firsthand that there are widespread misconceptions about conservative voters -- what they believe in and what they are looking for from their leaders. Let's look closer at this key demographic and debunk some of the biggest whoppers. ...

Yale Project on Climate Change 4/26
Public Support for Climate & Energy Policies
Majorities of Americans say that global warming and clean energy should be among the nation's priorities, want more action by elected officials, corporations, and citizens themselves, and support a variety of climate change and energy policies, including holding fossil fuel companies responsible for all the "hidden costs" of their products. ...

Pew 4/25
More Support for Gun Rights, Gay Marriage than in 2004
Opinions about a pair of contentious social issues, gun control and gay marriage, have changed substantially since previous presidential campaigns. On gun control, Americans have become more conservative; on gay marriage, they have become more liberal. ...

The Onion 4/24
Hoagie Expose Leads to Ratings Slide for President
Voters describe recent images of Obama eating a gigantic hoagie all by himself "somehow very sad." ...

Institute of Politics, Harvard (pdf) 4/24
Young Americans' Attitudes Toward Politics, Public Service
Approximately four months since Harvard IOP polling indicated that Barack Obama's approval ratings among 18- to 29- year olds reached new lows, there is evidence to suggest that the President and Democrats more broadly are beginning to regain the approval of this important segment of the electorate. ...

Kaiser Family Foundation (pdf) 4/24
Kaiser Health Tracking Poll
A month of intense media focus on the Affordable Care Act, spurred by the three days of oral arguments in the Supreme Court over a case challenging the law, did little to change Americans' basic view on the health reform law. ...

National Journal 4/24
Public Opinion Could Lead to Further Gridlock
Americans are fed up with Congress and a federal government perpetually frozen in conflict, but voters remain sharply split over how to ease the gridlock in the nation's capital, according to a new United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll. ...

Resurgent Republic (pdf) 4/23
Dispelling the Myth of the Hispanic Monolithic Voting Bloc
... In 2008 less than one-third of Hispanic voters supported the Republican nominee for President. ... Compared to 2008, President Obama is underperforming among this critically important voting bloc in battleground states where Hispanic voters will be the determining factor. ...

Al Hunt 4/22
Romney and Obama need these swing groups to win
This is expected to be a close U.S. presidential election and there's a general consensus in both camps about who, to paraphrase former President George W. Bush, the "deciders" will be. The swing groups are constituencies that went for Barack Obama in 2008 and voted Republican in the 2010 congressional elections, or voting blocs in which the premium is passion not preference. ...

Washington Post: Dan Balz 4/21
Obama vs. Romney: A tight election from the start
By the count of one Democratic pollster, roughly 40 presidential election polls have been released in the past seven weeks -- about one a day, with a day off every week. What do they tell us about November? ...

Gallup 4/20
Obama Trusted More Than Romney on Economy
Fifty percent of Americans say they have a great deal or a fair amount of confidence in President Obama to do or to recommend the right thing for the economy, more than say the same about Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (42%). ...

NBC News: Mark Murray 4/19
Obama leads Romney, but Republican ahead on economy
With the Republican presidential primary season essentially over and with the general election campaign now under way, President Barack Obama begins the race with a six-point lead over presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. ...

National Journal 4/19
Diversity Now
Coming together and pulling apart. American race relations appear to be moving in both directions at once as the nation hurtles through its greatest demographic transformation since the melting-pot era a century ago. ...

NBC New York 4/19
Pollster's Phone Call Saves NYC Woman's Life
Most people may not enjoy getting phone calls from pollsters, but one Manhattan woman's life was saved by such a call Monday night. ...

New York Times 4/19
In Wariness on Economy, Poll Finds Opening for Romney
A rising number of Americans see improvement in the economy, but a persistent wariness about their own financial circumstances is allowing Mitt Romney to persuade voters that he could improve their economic prospects more than President Obama, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. ...

Democracy Corps (pdf) 4/19
Ryan Budget weakens vulnerable Republicans
Last month, virtually all House Republicans voted for Paul Ryan's latest budget plan ("The Path to Prosperity") -- and according to the latest battleground survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women's Voices. Women Vote Action Fund, they will pay the price in November. ...

Ron Brownstein 4/17
Familiar Divisions Give Obama Narrow Edge
Four recent national polls, including three released in the past 24 hours, generally show the electorate dividing between President Obama and Mitt Romney along lines of class, gender and race familiar from the 2008 race. ...

Pew 4/17
With Voters Focused on Economy, Obama Lead Narrows
With voters continuing to focus on economic issues, Barack Obama holds a slim 49% to 45% advantage over Mitt Romney in the latest Pew Research Center survey of nearly 2,400 registered voters nationwide. ...

Andrew Kohut, Pew Research Center 4/17
Economy or Personality?
... Obama and Romney both carry so much political baggage that one or the other will have to defy modern political history to win in November. ...

ABC News 4/16
Romney Shows Record Shortfall in Personal Popularity
Mitt Romney has emerged from the Republican primary season with the weakest favorability rating on record for a presumptive presidential nominee in ABC News/Washington Post polls since 1984, trailing a resurgent Barack Obama in personal popularity by 21 percentage points. ...

Gallup 4/16
Romney, Obama in Tight Race
Mitt Romney is supported by 47% of national registered voters and Barack Obama by 45% in the inaugural Gallup Daily tracking results from April 11-15. Both Obama and Romney are supported by 90% of their respective partisans. ...

Gallup 4/16
Less Than Half of Americans Consider Tax Bill Too High
As tax filing day looms, Americans fall into two closely matched camps: those who believe the amount they pay in federal income tax is too high (46%) and those who consider it "about right" (47%). Just 3% consider their taxes too low. ...

Thomas B. Edsall, Columbia U. 4/16
Let the Nanotargeting Begin
... Perhaps most interesting, the findings emerging out of advances in microtechnology are a window into the striking differences in the tastes and interests of liberal and conservatives, Democrats and Republicans. Among other things, Democrats and Republicans differ in the entertainment they prefer, the restaurants they go to, the drinks they chose and the Web sites they visit. ...

Gallup 4/13
Americans Favor 'Buffett Rule' by 60% to 37%
Six in 10 Americans favor Congress' passing the so-called "Buffett Rule," which would mandate a minimum 30% tax rate for Americans with a household income of $1 million or more per year. Majorities of both Democrats and independents favor the policy, while a majority of Republicans oppose it. ...

Washington Post 4/12
Drop in Republican support for Afghan war
A majority of Republicans say for the first time that the war in Afghanistan has not been worth fighting, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll that comes as the continuing U.S. presence in that country is emerging as a key point of contention in the presidential race. ...

Businessweek: Joshua Green 4/11
The GOP Thinks Romney Can't Win; History Says He Can
With Rick Santorum's exit from the presidential race, Mitt Romney can at last turn his attention to the general election. He'll have to start by convincing his own party that his candidacy isn't a lost cause. ...

Pew 4/11
What the Public Knows about the Political Parties
... [A] review of what Americans know about the political parties shows that the public is better informed about the partisan affiliations of two popular recent presidents -- Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton -- than it is about the positions of the parties on key issues that dominate the current national debate. ...

Washington Post 4/11
More expect Court's health care decision to be political
More Americans think Supreme Court justices will be acting mainly on their partisan political views than on a neutral reading of the law when they decide the constitutionality of President Obama's health-care law, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. ...

Washington Post 4/10
Economy malaise looms over Obama reelection bid
With the general-election campaign beginning to take shape, President Obama holds clear advantages over Mitt Romney on personal attributes and a number of key issues, but remains vulnerable to discontent with the pace of the economic recovery, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. ...

Afghan Center for Socio-Economic & Opinion Research 4/9
Half in Afghanistan Believe the Taliban Have Moderated
Afghans express a growing sense that the Taliban have become more moderate, and the public broadly supports a negotiated settlement with them -- even if that means ceding government control of some provinces, the latest Afghan Futures survey has found. ...

Gallup 4/9
Americans Favor Various Energy, Environment Proposals
Americans as a whole favor a wide-ranging set of proposals for dealing with the nation's energy and environment situations, but support varies markedly across party lines. ...

Third Way 4/9
Opportunity Trumps Fairness with Swing Independents
... We find that Swing Independents are "opportunity" voters -- preferring an optimistic, opportunity framework on the economy over one based on fairness. Why? Opportunity addresses their anxieties about the future, concerns that America is slipping, doubts about how the next generation will succeed, and questions over how we will strengthen our economy. ...

Gallup 4/9
Obama's Monthly Job Approval Edges Higher in March
President Barack Obama's job approval rating averaged 46% in March, up from 45% in January and February, and significantly improved over his term-low 41% monthly averages recorded last summer and fall. ...

Douglas Schoen 4/8
Majorities of Americans Think Country Divided by Race
Majorities of both whites (72%) and blacks (89%) believe the country is divided by race, the poll finds. But twice as many blacks (40%) as whites (20%) say it is very divided. And just 19 percent of whites say that racism is a big problem in America, vs. 60 percent of blacks. ...

Brendan Nyhan, Dartmouth 4/6
Narrowcasting the 2012 Election
... In reality, presidential election outcomes can almost never be attributed to a shift in a single demographic group. Likewise, most campaigns are decided by the popular vote, not the details of the Electoral College. For both reasons, journalists should keep their eye on the big picture. ...

Ronald Brownstein 4/5
5-4 and 50-50
... In all, the most predictable message of 2012 is likely to be that after a surge toward the Republicans following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, a tide of disillusionment with President Bush that lifted the Democrats in 2006 and 2008, and a sharp snap back toward the GOP in 2010, America has reverted to being a 50-50 nation. ...

Howey Politics Indiana: Christine Matthews 4/5
INDIANA: GOP primary makeup will be key
Our March 26-28 poll shows what everyone knows: Richard Lugar is in a tough battle to win the May 8 Republican primary. ...

Pew 4/5
The rise of e-reading
The growing popularity of e-books and the adoption of specialized e-book reading devices are documented in a series of new nationally representative surveys by the Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project that look at the public's general reading habits, their consumption of print books, e-books and audiobooks, and their attitudes about the changing ways that books are made available to the public. ...

Lynn Vavreck, UCLA 4/4
If You Were Running for President . . .
... Once we know the economic context and the prediction, we can systematically, and well in advance, strategize about how each party should go about crafting a winning message. ...

New York Times: John Harwood 4/4
Tired of Topsy-Turvy Politics? You May Enjoy the General
... So now that Republicans have begun rallying around Mr. Romney, does that signal the start of a mercurial, topsy-turvy general election fight with President Obama? Almost certainly not. ...

G. Terry Madonna & Michael L. Young 4/4
Santorum's Last Stand
... A close look at the last month of the campaign reveals the painful contours of the Santorum slide. Altogether five factors have converged to turn Pennsylvania into what could be Santorum's last stand. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 4/4
Romney Leans on Wisconsin's Well-Off
Mitt Romney again relied on well-off voters for a Midwest victory, leaning in Wisconsin on support from those with $100,000-plus incomes while running only about evenly against Rick Santorum among those less comfortable financially. ...

Mark Mellman 4/4
Following the bouncing political polls
... Polls bounce around. Even seemingly substantial variations often prove to be nothing more than noise. ...

Resurgent Republic 4/3
The Economy, Health Care and Seniors
As part of our Target Voter Series, Resurgent Republic sponsored four focus groups among seniors ages 65 and older in Tampa, Florida, and Grand Rapids, Michigan. These voters self-identified as Independents, voted for President Obama in 2008, but are undecided on the generic presidential ballot today. ...

Public Religion Research Institute 4/3
Chosen for What? Jewish Values in 2012
Jewish values, particularly pursuing justice and a commitment to social equality, are important for informing political beliefs and behaviors, a new national survey of American Jews finds. ...

Clifford Young, Ipsos 4/3
Obama will be president, again, in 2013
... Our own political forecasting model, based on hundreds of elections around the world, indicates that Obama has about an 85% probability of winning reelection and re-taking the White House. Yes, there is a chance that Obama might falter, but it is a small one and the Republican candidate has little bearing on it. ...

Lancaster Online 4/2
Santorum attacks Franklin & Marshall College pollster
G. Terry Madonna laughed Monday when he heard an Internet search of his name and the term "Democratic hack" produced 76 hits. ...

Gallup 4/2
Obama 49%, Romney 45% Among Registered Voters
If asked to choose between them today, 49% of U.S. registered voters say they would vote for Barack Obama for president, while 45% would choose likely Republican opponent Mitt Romney. While Obama's advantage is not statistically significant, it is the largest he has had over Romney in Gallup polling to date. ...

Washington Post 4/1
Santorum: PA polls showing close race work of 'hack'
Former senator Rick Santorum on Sunday dismissed recent polls showing his support collapsing in his home state of Pennsylvania, taking aim at the nonpartisan pollster behind the surveys as "a Democratic hack." In an appearance on "Fox News Sunday," Santorum was asked about a late-March Franklin & Marshall poll. ...
[From The Polling Report archives: The final Franklin & Marshall 1996 Senate poll, conducted Oct. 25-29, among registered voters, had Bob Casey Jr. leading Rick Santorum 53% to 38%, with 9% undecided. Casey defeated Santorum 59% to 41%.]

USA Today 4/1
Swing States poll: A shift by women puts Obama in lead
President Obama has opened the first significant lead of the 2012 campaign in the nation's dozen top battleground states, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, boosted by a huge shift of women to his side. ...

Dante Chinni, The Jefferson Institute 3/31
How elections reduce Americans to stereotypes
... We don't need to stop studying and debating voter demographics, but we should be smarter about how we do it. The way we talk about voters matters, not just because it affects campaigns and candidates, but because it shapes how we see our country and our fellow citizens -- and the perceptions it fosters are often wrong. ...

Pew 3/30
Attitudes About Race
The controversy over the death of Trayvon Martin has highlighted issues relating to the treatment of blacks by local police departments, the state of race relations in the U.S. and press coverage of African Americans. Pew Research Center surveys in recent years have covered the opinions of blacks and whites on these and other issues. ...

Gallup 3/30
Global Warming Views Steady Despite Warm Winter
About half of Americans, 52%, say the effects of global warming have already begun to happen, consistent with views since 2009. However, this remains down from prior years, when as many as 61% believed global warming was already manifesting itself. ...

Gordon Gauchat, UNC Chapel Hill (pdf) 3/29
Politicization of Science in the Public Sphere
... To summarize the main empirical findings, this study shows that public trust in science has not declined since the 1970s except among conservatives and those who frequently attend church. ...

Pew 3/29
The Gender Gap: Three Decades Old, as Wide as Ever
The gender gap in presidential politics is not new. Democratic candidates have gotten more support from women than men for more than 30 years. Even so, Barack Obama's advantages among women voters over his GOP rivals are striking. ...

Kaiser Family Foundation (pdf) 3/28
Public Opinion on the Individual Mandate
... One of the consistent tenets in public opinion on the ACA is this: while the law as a whole has never gained majority support, many of its component parts -- from the relatively narrow to the core and comprehensive -- have been consistently popular over the past two years, with the glaring exception of the individual mandate. ...

Mark S. Mellman 3/28
Healthcare reform is no poison pill
... Americans do not reject healthcare reform en masse. They are cross-pressured -- liking parts of the plan and disliking others -- leading to uncertainty, instability and oscillation in public opinion. ...

David Hill 3/28
Polls on ObamaCare mislead
... ObamaCare-bashing could supplant immigration as our party's most mishandled issue. ... What emboldens too many Republicans are the glitzy top-line numbers from polls. ...

ABC News 3/28
Record Number See Romney Negatively
Mitt Romney trails Barack Obama by 19 points in basic popularity as the 2012 presidential contest inches closer to the main event, with a record 50 percent of Americans in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll now rating Romney unfavorably overall. ...

Resurgent Republic 3/27
The Disillusioned Obama Young Voter
... President Obama and his team have indicated they are focused on re-energizing the youth vote in both of these states and others. If these groups are representative of this demographic at large, it will be a tall task to counter the disillusionment many feel due to a pattern of over-promising and under-delivering. ...

National Journal 3/27
Public Still Opposes Health Care Mandate
Americans remain overwhelmingly against requiring individuals to purchase health insurance, but they divide in half about the health care law that President Obama signed in 2010, according to the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll. ...

Reason-Rupe 3/27
Majority of Americans Open To Medicare Reform
The recent national Reason-Rupe poll of 1200 adults finds 65 percent of Americans are open to changing Medicare for those under 55 years old into a program that gives individuals a credit to purchase a private insurance plan. ...

New York Times 3/27
Support in U.S. for Afghan War Drops Sharply
After a series of violent episodes and setbacks, support for the war in Afghanistan has dropped sharply among both Republicans and Democrats, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. ...

Los Angeles Times 3/26
Strong majority backs Jerry Brown's tax-hike initiative
California voters strongly support Gov. Jerry Brown's new proposal to increase the sales tax and raise levies on upper incomes to help raise money for schools and balance the state's budget, according to a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll. ...

Los Angeles Times 3/24
California Republicans get behind Mitt Romney
Republican voters in California have swung behind Mitt Romney, with the national presidential front-runner crushing his rivals by double digits and substantially expanding his support in the state, a new poll has found. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 3/24
Conservatives, Religious Voters Send Santorum Soaring
A strongly conservative, religiously inspired Republican electorate turned the tables on Mitt Romney in Louisiana, supplying Rick Santorum with both an easy win and a sharp riposte to Romney's victory in Illinois four days earlier. ...

NBC News: Michael Isikoff 3/23
Pro-Romney Super PAC, campaign blur lines on polling
The pro-Mitt Romney Super PAC has paid $803,000 to a small Alexandria, Va., polling firm that is owned by the senior partners of a prominent Republican consulting company that does the polling for the Romney presidential campaign, according to the campaign finance reports. ...

Pew 3/23
Top One-Word Reactions to GOP Candidates
When Americans are asked what one word comes to mind when thinking about Mitt Romney, no single term stands out. The most frequent responses are "no" or "no way," and "rich." ...

Resurgent Republic (pdf) 3/22
Suburban Women Voters
As part of our Target Voter Series, Resurgent Republic sponsored four focus groups among Suburban Women who self-identified as Independents, voted for Obama in 2008 and are undecided today. ...

Third Way and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (pdf) 3/21
National Security Focus Group Report
... Swing voters in a new set of focus groups are generally impressed with the job President Obama is doing in keeping the country safe. Yet his success has not erased old doubts or stereotypes about his party on these issues. ...

Pew 3/21
More See 'Too Much' Religious Talk by Politicians
A new survey finds signs of public uneasiness with the mixing of religion and politics. The number of people who say there has been too much religious talk by political leaders stands at an all-time high since the Pew Research Center began asking the question more than a decade ago. ...

Ronald Brownstein 3/21
Illinois Verdict: The Race Goes On With Divided GOP
Mitt Romney's resounding win in the Illinois primary Tuesday demonstrated his solidifying hold on the GOP's upscale managerial wing, and deepened the question of whether rival Rick Santorum can appeal to a broad enough segment of Republican voters to truly challenge the front-runner's lead for the nomination. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer, Gregory Holyk, Damla Ergun 3/21
Better-Off, Better Educated Voters Boost Romney in IL
An improved sense that he understands voters' problems boosted Mitt Romney to victory in the Illinois primary, as did a less religiously focused, less strongly conservative electorate than he's faced in other contests, especially to the south. But a shortfall among less well-heeled Republicans marks his continued challenges. ...

Gallup 3/19
Obama's Job Approval Tied to Economic Confidence in 2012
A new Gallup analysis of the relationship between Americans' views of the economy and of recent presidents' job performance finds that the two measures are not always closely related, but have been thus far in 2012. ...

ABC News: Greg Holyk 3/19
Health Care Law: Two-Thirds Say Ditch Individual Mandate
Two-thirds of Americans say the U.S. Supreme Court should throw out either the individual mandate in the federal health care law or the law in its entirety, signaling the depth of public disagreement with that element of the Affordable Care Act. ...

Pew 3/19
Support for Oil and Gas Production Grows
At a time of rising gas prices, the public's energy priorities have changed. More Americans continue to view the development of alternative energy sources as a higher priority than the increased production of oil, coal and natural gas, but the gap has narrowed considerably over the past year. ...

Thomas Edsall 3/19
The Uses of Polarization
... The power of campaigns to create and motivate new swing voters dovetails with the political strategy of driving polarization. Information science has geometrically improved the ability of campaigns to accurately identify specific voters who are angry or threatened and most easily motivated by hard-edged, divisive messages, on such issues as race, taxes, welfare and other hot-button subjects. ...

Jonathan Haidt, U. of Virginia 3/17
Forget the Money, Follow the Sacredness
... Despite what you might have learned in Economics 101, people aren't always selfish. In politics, they're more often groupish. When people feel that a group they value -- be it racial, religious, regional or ideological -- is under attack, they rally to its defense, even at some cost to themselves. ...

New York Times 3/17
When Businesses Can't Stop Asking, 'How Am I Doing?'
A commercial transaction, in its simplest form, involves a customer paying for goods or services. But these days, that is just the first step. ...

Ronald Brownstein 3/16
Obama's Key Groups Warming on the Economy
In a trend with important implications for the presidential election, the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll released today shows President Obama's strongest groups in the electorate expressing the most optimism about the trajectory of the economy. ...

Gallup 3/16
Romney, Santorum Tie as Gingrich Voters' Second Choice
Republican voters who prefer Newt Gingrich for the party's 2012 presidential nomination are as likely to name Mitt Romney as their second choice as they are to name Rick Santorum, suggesting the race would not tilt in Santorum's favor if Gingrich dropped out. ...

Washington Post 3/16
In GOP race, voters divided over religion's place in politics
Faith has emerged as a significant fault line in the Republican race for president, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, which shows that Rick Santorum's supporters seek a much stronger role for religion in American politics than do voters who support rival Mitt Romney. ...

Ronald Brownstein 3/16
White Like Me
... This year's tumultuous Republican presidential race has underscored the dominance of whites, especially older white voters, in the GOP. After Tuesday's contests in Alabama and Mississippi, exit polls have been conducted in 16 states that have held Republican primaries or caucuses. In all but two, whites cast at least 90 percent of the ballots. ...

Religion News Service 3/15
The contraception mandate and religious freedom
A vocal contingent of Republican presidential candidates and church leaders are railing against the Obama administration's "war on religion," but most Americans can't seem to find the fight. ...

Gallup 3/15
Half Say U.S. Should Speed Up Afghanistan Withdrawal
Fifty percent of Americans say the United States should speed up withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan, while 24% prefer sticking to the current timetable to leave by the end of 2014, and 21% say the U.S. should stay as long as it takes to accomplish its goals. ...

Drew Altman, Kaiser Family Foundation 3/14
The ACA and Fluoridation: The Power of Political Symbols
... When policy experts debate the ACA, they debate the substance of the law: what it will cost and save; how much it will do to reduce the number of the uninsured; and whether other policies might be more desirable. The public, however, does not look at the ACA through the lens of a policy decision memo. ...

Pew 3/14
Romney Leads GOP Contest, Trails in Matchup with Obama
Mitt Romney has retaken a significant lead nationally in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, even as he has fallen further behind Barack Obama in a general election matchup. ...

National Journal 3/13
Public Supports Obama on Gas Prices
More Americans trust President Obama than congressional Republicans to make the right decisions to bring down the price of gasoline, according to a new poll, although neither side commands a majority. ...

Bloomberg 3/13
Public's Economic Outlook Turning from Fear to Hope
... More than twice as many Americans view the economy's prospects as brightening as see them darkening, a reversal from nine months ago, when more people expected deterioration ahead, according to a Bloomberg National Poll conducted March 8-11. ...

New York Times 3/13
Obama's Rating Falls as Poll Reflects Volatility
Despite improving job growth and an extended Republican primary fight dividing his would-be opponents, President Obama is heading into the general election season on treacherous political ground, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. ...

Larry Bartels, Vanderbilt U. 3/12
The Phantom Tax Hike
President Obama is paying a significant political price for having increased the tax burden on middle-class Americans. Fair enough -- except that he hasn't. ...

CBS News 3/12
Obama's approval rating sinks to new low
President Obama's approval rating has hit the lowest level ever in CBS News polling, according to the latest CBS News/New York Times survey. The drop may be partially attributable to rising gas prices. ...

Ezra Klein 3/12
The Unpersuaded: Who listens to a President?
... Presidents win victories because ordinary Americans feel that their lives are going well, and we call those Presidents great communicators, because their public persona is the part of them we know. ...

Washington Post 3/12
Gas prices sink Obama's ratings on economy
Disapproval of President Obama's handling of the economy is heading higher -- alongside gasoline prices -- as a record number of Americans now give the president "strongly" negative reviews on the 2012 presidential campaign's most important issue, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 3/11
Six in 10 Criticize War in Afghanistan
Sixty percent of Americans say the war in Afghanistan has not been not worth fighting and just 30 percent believe the Afghan public supports the U.S. mission there -- marking the sour state of attitudes on the war even before the shooting rampage allegedly by a U.S. soldier this weekend. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 3/8
Religion, Race and Romney's Road Ahead
... Combining results across all states in which we’ve had exit or entrance polls, Romney’s done 19 points better among non-evangelical than among evangelical voters. It’s among the few most consistent gaps in his support profile across the 2012 contest to date. ...

Bloomberg 3/8
Consumer Confidence in U.S. Rises
Household confidence improved last week to a four-year high as more Americans said the economy was improving and decided it was a good time to shop. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 3/8
Gingrich: The Santorum Siphon?
... Is Newt Gingrich tripping up Rick Santorum by siphoning away anti-Romney voters? It's hard to answer, because it's hypothetical; we haven't had a second-choice question in any of the exit polls this year. But the data we do see suggest that this argument, at best, is far from a slam-dunk. ...

PPIC 3/8
California: Economy, Financial Worries Weigh on Voters
California's likely voters approach the elections this year with big concerns about the economy and the state's fiscal future, according to a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California. ...

Gallup 3/7
Obama Approval Averages 45% in February
President Obama's average job approval rating for the month of February in Gallup Daily tracking was 45%, with 47% disapproving, unchanged from January. ...

CBS News: Samuel J. Best 3/7
How Romney won Ohio
Romney eked out a narrow victory in the Ohio Republican primary on Tuesday. The CBS News exit poll of Ohio Republican primary voters showed that Rick Santorum's coalition of crossover Democrats and socially conservative voters was not quite large enough to offset Mitt Romney's base of ideologically moderate voters. ...

ABC News / Langer Research 3/7
Super Tuesday Theme Song: Can't Buy Me Love?
"Can't Buy Me Love" might be the theme song of the Super Tuesday primaries: Mitt Romney prevailed on electability, but in terms of a personal connection with voters' concerns, it was another matter. ...

Mark Mellman 3/7
Romney's negatives are his fault
Tuesday night must have been bittersweet for Mitt Romney. Just as he finally feels the nomination is in hand (as you know, I've been pretty confident of that for a while), he sees victory in the general election slipping further from his grasp. ...

Charlie Cook 3/6
Shifting Winds
... The GOP's self-absorption and obsession with pleasing its conservative base in presidential candidates' rhetoric and in policy initiatives at the congressional, gubernatorial, and state legislative levels have taken a toll. ...

Fox News Latino 3/5
GOP Hopefuls Losing Ground to Obama Among Latinos
Despite growing disappointment in his handling of immigration issues, Latino voters favor President Barack Obama by six-to-one over any of the Republican presidential hopefuls, showed a Fox News Latino poll conducted under the direction of Latin Insights. ...

Pew 3/5
GOP Race Is Rallying Democrats
The Republican nomination battle is rallying Democrats behind Barack Obama. ...

Gallup 3/5
Four in 10 Americans Now Say Economy Is Growing
Forty percent of Americans believe the U.S. economy is growing, up from 27% last April and 3% in 2008. While this represents a major shift in economic perceptions over the last four years, nearly half of Americans, 46%, still say the economy is in either a recession or a depression. ...

NBC News: Mark Murray 3/5
Primary season takes 'corrosive' toll on the GOP
As another round of voting takes place this week in the Republican presidential race -- with 11 states holding Super Tuesday contests -- a new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows that the combative and heavily scrutinized primary season so far has damaged the party and its candidates. ...

New York Times 3/1
Law Has Polling Firms Leery of Work in New Hampshire
New Hampshire's attorney general is threatening legal action against some of the nation's most prominent polling firms, invoking a state law against spreading negative information through poll questions in a way that could limit public opinion surveys in one of the nation's most politically contested states. ...

Jeremy Rosner & Stanley Greenberg 3/1
From Strength to Strength
... Americans may be sharply polarized on many issues, but they are relatively aligned on their confidence in Obama as commander in chief. ...

Kaiser Family Foundation (pdf) 3/1
Health Tracking Poll
In the midst of a debate on the future of the Medicare program, most Americans, including seniors, are currently taking the side of the status quo, though budgetary arguments about the program's future solvency, as well as arguments about the effects of any change on seniors, have the potential to sway opinion. ...

ABC News / Langer Research Associates 2/29
Seniors and the Wealthy Save Michigan for Romney
Michigan's primary drew the Republican Party's ideological, religious and socioeconomic divisions in sharp relief, raising questions both for the primaries ahead and for the party's ability to coalesce behind its eventual candidate. ...

David Hill 2/29
Wall Street's predictive power
... Our supposed understanding of the predictive power of equity markets is a little more established than fortune-telling predicated on bobble-head sales. Or so I thought. ...

Mark Mellman 2/29
Words matter in pollsters' questions
It seems like a simple question: Do Americans now support the Obama administration's efforts to save our auto industry? ...

Christopher Borick and Barry Rabe (pdf) 2/28
American Public Opinion on Climate Change
After a period of declining levels of belief in global warming there appears to be a modest rebound in the percentage of Americans that believe temperatures on the planet are increasing. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 2/28
New Lows for Romney Among Conservatives
Mitt Romney has fallen to a new low in personal favorability among strong conservatives in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, as his persistent problems in this core GOP group now threaten his fortunes in today's crucial Michigan primary. ...

National Journal 2/28
Public Divided Over Birth-Control Coverage
On the docket of contraception-related issues dividing the parties, more Americans lean toward the positions held by President Obama and most Democrats, though in several cases only narrowly, according to the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll. ...

Pew 2/27
Public Views of the Divide between Religion and Politics
... In both 2010 and 2008, narrow majorities said that churches and other houses of worship should keep out of political matters rather than express their views on social and political questions, according to polls by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and the Pew Forum for Religion & Public Life. ...

Gallup 2/27
Americans Divided on Repeal of 2010 Health Care Law
Americans divide evenly when asked if they favor (47%) or oppose (44%) a Republican president's repealing the 2010 health care law if elected this November. ...

John Aloysius Farrell 2/24
Divided We Stand
... Congressional leaders now sound, and act, like their parliamentary counterparts in foreign lands -- voting in rigid blocs and, in times of legislative gridlock, calling for an election to put the question to the voters. ...

Washington Post 2/24
Santorum winning more support from Republican women
... A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows not only that Santorum is doing better among GOP women than he was a few weeks ago, but also that he is less unpopular -- and also less well known -- among Democratic and independent women than his Republican rivals Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. ...

Pew 2/23
Auto Bailout Now Backed, Stimulus Divisive
Public support for government loans to major U.S. automakers has increased sharply since 2009. Opinions are far less positive, however, about two other major initiatives to bolster the economy -- the 2008 bank bailout and the 2009 stimulus plan. ...

Bloomberg 2/23
Consumer Comfort Highest in Almost Four Years
Consumer confidence in the U.S. increased last week to the highest level since April 2008 as more Americans had a favorable view of their finances. ...

Sacramento Bee 2/23
Obama resurgent in California
President Barack Obama is enjoying a mini-renaissance in California. Golden State voters are giving him a higher job approval rating and larger margins of victory over potential GOP challengers than they did three months ago. ...

ABC News 2/22
Santorum, Romney Even in Popularity, Gingrich Fades
Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney have battled essentially to parity in basic popularity, far outpacing Newt Gingrich, who's faded to a new low in the 2012 election cycle. ...

Sacramento Bee 2/22
California: Romney holds lead, but Santorum gains
While challengers rise and recede in the Republican presidential primaries, Mitt Romney's sail remains full in California. ...

David Hill 2/22
Santorum's '06 loss not just bad luck
... The last time Santorum faced his home state's electorate, in 2006, he fell by double digits. He did so poorly, in fact, that there's little doubt he'd fail again in Pennsylvania, even if he were placed at the top of our Republican ticket. ...

Gallup 2/21
Santorum Expands Lead, Romney Gets Electability Vote
Rick Santorum now holds a 10-percentage-point lead in Gallup's Daily tracking of national Republicans registered voters' preferences for the 2012 GOP nomination. ...

Gallup 2/20
Americans Still Rate Iran Top U.S. Enemy
Americans most frequently mention Iran when asked to name the country they consider to be the United States' greatest enemy, and the 32% who do so is up from 25% in 2011. ...

Guardian 2/18
Obama, Facebook and the power of friendship
Barack Obama's re-election team are building a vast digital data operation that for the first time combines a unified database on millions of Americans with the power of Facebook to target individual voters to a degree never achieved before. ...

John Sides, George Washington U. 2/17
Obama, Birth Control, and Catholic Voters
Did the the contraception contretemps hurt Obama's standing among Catholic voters? Despite endless speculation about this, evidence has been in short supply. ...

William Galston 2/17
The Obama Campaign Has Momentum, But Can It Keep It?
It's all but official: Survey after survey indicates that President Obama’s reelection prospects have brightened considerably in the past three months. ...

Gallup 2/17
Reagan, Clinton Judged Best of Recent Presidents
Americans believe history will judge Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton as the best among recent U.S. presidents, with at least 6 in 10 saying each will go down in history as an above-average or outstanding president. ...

Democracy Corps / WVWV Action Fund 2/16
New Phase and Shifting Balance
... This survey sees a collapse of the Republican brand at almost all levels. Negatives associated with the Republican Party have not been this high since right after they lost the country in 2008. ...

Fox News: Dana Blanton 2/15
Swing-state landscape shifting?
President Obama leads each Republican contender in swing states. That's according to a Fox News Swing State Poll that also suggests a significant shift in the battleground landscape. ...

CBS News 2/14
Obama's ratings rise as economic outlook improves
Most Americans still say the economy is in a rut, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll, but more and more say the economy is improving. And as the public grows more optimistic about the economy, the poll shows, President Obama is getting some credit for it. ...

Pew 2/14
Public Divided Over Birth Control Insurance Mandate
About six-in-ten Americans (62%) have heard about the proposed federal rule that would require employers, including most religiously affiliated institutions, to cover birth control as part of their health care benefits. Among those aware of the issue, opinion is closely divided over whether these institutions should be given an exemption to the rule if they object to the use of contraceptives. ...

Gallup 2/14
Catholics' Approval of Obama Little Changed
Catholics' views of President Obama were little changed during a week in which the administration battled publicly with Catholic leaders over whether church-affiliated employers should have to pay for contraception as part of their employees' health plans. ...

National Journal 2/14
Americans Split on Concern For Very Poor
As the debate over the federal budget resumes, a new United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll shows that most Americans are concerned about growing dependency on federal entitlements, but still resist major spending cuts in programs benefiting the poor and the elderly. ...

Pew 2/13
Santorum Catches Romney in GOP Race
Rick Santorum’s support among Tea Party Republicans and white evangelicals is surging, and he now has pulled into a virtual tie with Mitt Romney in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. ...

New York Times 2/12
Most Expect to Give More Than They Receive
A majority of Americans say they expect to pay more in federal taxes over their lifetime than they will ever receive in benefits from the government, according to a recent New York Times poll. ...

ABC News 2/9
Split Opinion on Tax Proposals
Americans broadly support increasing taxes on businesses that move jobs overseas and on the very wealthy. But two other tax proposals -- cutting taxes for companies that bring overseas jobs here, and boosting the capital gains tax -- are much less popular. ...

Alan I. Abramowitz 2/9
The Third Party Illusion
... The vast majority of American voters today, in fact well over 90%, identify with or lean toward one of the two major parties. And the vast majority of those identifiers and leaners strongly prefer their own party’s candidates and policies to those of the opposing party. ...

Gallup 2/9
Obama's Economic Approval Rating Improves
By 59% to 38%, more Americans continue to disapprove than approve of President Barack Obama's handling of the economy. However, his approval rating on the economy is up from 30% in November after descending to a term-low 26% in August. ...

Pew 2/9
Young, Underemployed and Optimistic
... A plurality of the public (41%) believes young adults, rather than middle-aged or older adults, are having the toughest time in today's economy. An analysis of government economic data suggests that this perception is correct. ...

Gallup 2/7
Congress' Job Approval at New Low of 10%
A record-low 10% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, down from 13% in January and the previous low of 11%, recorded in December 2011. ...

Public Religion Research Institute 2/7
Employer Health Care Plans and Contraception Coverage
A majority (55%) of Americans agree that "employers should be required to provide their employees with health care plans that cover contraception and birth control at no cost." ... Roughly 6-in-10 Catholics (58%) believe that employers should be required to provide their employees with health care plans that cover contraception. ...

Charlie Cook 2/7
Up in the Air
Last Friday's drop in the unemployment rate from 8.5 to 8.3 percent marked the fifth consecutive month of declines in the jobless rate. This decline adds to a growing body of evidence that there are some subtle but important shifting sands in the 2012 election. ...

Third Way (pdf) 2/7
2012 Showdown: Battle for the Obama Independents
Many analysts lump all Independents together, when in fact there are currently two very distinct groups of Independent voters: those who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 ("Obama Independents") and those who voted for John McCain ("McCain Independents"). The Obama Independents are the real heart of the contest for 2012. ...

Gallup: Frank Newport 2/6
Where the U.S. Election Stands Now
U.S. President Barack Obama beats several of his possible Republican opponents in recent Gallup general election trial heats, but he is tied with GOP front-runner Mitt Romney, suggesting he could be facing a competitive race this fall. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 2/6
Today's Poll: A Word on the Buzz
Our latest ABC News/Washington Post poll is getting some buzz today, including some criticisms of the questionnaire design. On one hand it’s hardly the newest game in town for aggrieved parties to try to dismiss survey results they don’t like. On the other, fair-minded discussion always is welcome. ...

Ronald Brownstein 2/6
Is Obama's Coalition Re-Emerging?
One striking aspect of the new ABC News/Washington Post poll released Monday is how closely the internal results of its head-to-head match-up between President Obama and Mitt Romney track Obama's performance against John McCain in 2008. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 2/6
Economic Gains, Questions on Romney Boost Obama
Mitt Romney has solidified his position for the Republican nomination but lost ground in the main event, with improved economic indicators and questions about Romney's wealth and taxes lifting Barack Obama to a head-to-head advantage for the first time this cycle. ...

Washington Post 2/6
Obama holds edge over Romney
Boosted by improved public confidence in his economic stewardship, President Obama for the first time holds a clear edge over Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney in a hypothetical general-election matchup, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 2/5
Nevada's a Romney Romp
Mitt Romney romped in the Nevada caucuses with a leg up from his Mormon co-religionists, but also with winning margins across other faith groups -- evangelicals included -- and a knockout even among the very conservative voters with whom he's struggled elsewhere. ...

CBS News: Sarah Dutton 2/5
How Mitt Romney won the Nevada caucuses
... CBS News entrance polls show Romney won among most demographic groups. He received strong support from Mormon voters in Nevada - a group he also won overwhelmingly in the 2008 Nevada caucuses. ...

Tim Hibbitts 2/3
Vengeful Billionaire Sinks President's Re-election Bid!
... "When the facts collide with the legend, print the legend." So it is with the 1992 presidential election, as even today many reporters state as fact that independent Ross Perot cost George H. W. Bush the presidency. ...

Samuel J. Best, U. of Conn. 2/3
8 lessons from the Republican presidential race so far
The first month of the Republican nomination process is complete and it has produced one of the most exciting races in a generation. Three different candidates have won the first four contests. ... Examining the CBS News entrance/exit polls of voters in these states offers a number of insights into the GOP nomination battle as well as the upcoming presidential race. ...

Gallup: Jeffrey M. Jones 2/3
More States Move to GOP in 2011
Democrats have lost their solid political party affiliation advantage in 18 states since 2008, while Republicans have gained a solid advantage in 6 states. ...

Charlie Cook 2/2
Improving Fortunes
... Pollsters and strategists in both parties are closely watching some very preliminary and uncertain signs that suggest the dynamics today will be somewhat different than those that drove the 2010 midterm elections and the political debate during much of 2011. ...

Las Vegas Review-Journal 2/2
Nevada: Romney poised to roll, poll shows
A new poll shows Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney headed for a blowout victory Saturday in Nevada's GOP caucuses. ...

New York Times David Leonhardt 2/1
Obama's Approval Ratings Suggest a Nail-Biter
... Mr. Obama now hovers in the gray area between likely victory and likely defeat, with the country divided nearly 50-50 on his performance. ...

Mark Mellman 2/1
The 50 percent problem
What do job approval ratings portend about a president’s reelection prospects? Quite a lot, according to most analysts, whose mantra is that an incumbent president needs 50 percent approval to be reelected. ...

ABC News 2/1
Romney Basks in Florida, Strong Conservatives Aside
Mitt Romney snapped back from South Carolina with a Florida primary victory that took advantage of a more diverse electorate, re-established his image of electability and economic leadership, and demonstrated his organizational firepower in attracting -- and retaining -- early-deciding voters. ...

Ronald Brownstein 2/1
How Romney Came Back in Florida
Mitt Romney's blowout win in Florida Tuesday provided almost a mirror image of the results just 10 days ago in South Carolina, a head-spinning reversal that underscored the continuing turbulence of the most volatile Republican presidential race since 1940. ...

National Journal 1/31
Voters Favor Obama Ideas But Keystone, Too
According to a new poll, Americans overwhelmingly support the key ideas President Obama laid out in his State of the Union address last week but also favor the GOP approach to taxes and regulation and a controversial oil pipeline from Canada to the U.S. -- all while doubting the ability of the president and Congress to come to agreement. ...

Gallup: Jeffrey M. Jones 1/31
Obama Approval Above 50% in 10 States and DC in 2011
In 10 states plus the District of Columbia, a majority of residents approved of the job Barack Obama was doing as president last year, according to aggregated data from 2011. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 1/31
Gingrich and Romney In the Private Sector
Neither Mitt Romney's nor Newt Gingrich's private sector experience is playing particularly well with the American public, although Gingrich's consulting work draws far more criticism than Romney's background buying and restructuring companies. ...

Columbia Journalism Review: Brian E. Crowley 1/31
Romney's Hispanic Support: About That Florida Poll
... In Caputo's and Smith's stories, there is a clear example of what is wrong with newspaper polls and the coverage thereof. Both reporters wrote that their poll showed that Romney has a 24-point lead over Gingrich among Hispanic voters -- 52 to 28 percent. But readers were not told important details about these numbers. ...

Gallup 1/30
Romney Seen as More Presidential, Sincere Than Gingrich
Mitt Romney leads Newt Gingrich, 59% to 39%, in U.S. registered voters' perceptions that each "has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have." ...

William Galston 1/30
Romney a Stronger Candidate Than Democrats Think
... The conventional wisdom is that the Republican nominating contest has already damaged Romney severely. ... But it's hard to find much evidence of that trend in Florida, a state whose voters have much more information about Romney, negative as well as positive, than they did two weeks ago, and far more than do voters nationally. ...

USA Today 1/29
Swing States poll: Romney and Obama tied; Gingrich trails
Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney essentially ties Barack Obama in the nation's key battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States survey finds, while rival Newt Gingrich now trails the president by a decisive 14 percentage points. ...

Gallup 1/27
Obama Ratings Historically Polarized
The historically high gap between partisans' job approval ratings of Barack Obama continued during Obama's third year in office, with an average of 80% of Democrats and 12% of Republicans approving of the job he was doing. ...

Andrew Kohut 1/27
Don't Mind the Gap
... What's different these days is that a despondent public, struggling with difficult times and an uncertain future, is upset over a perceived lack of fairness in public policy. ...

NBC News 1/26
Gingrich leads Romney, but badly trails Obama
Newt Gingrich leads Mitt Romney among Republicans, but he is the weakest of the Republican candidates tested against President Obama, according to an NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday evening. ...

Kaiser Family Foundation (pdf) 1/26
Kaiser Health Tracking Poll
Earlier this month, parties challenging certain aspects of the 2010 health reform law ... filed their opening briefs with the Supreme Court. As the Court prepares to hear arguments in the case in March, most of the public believes the Justices' own ideological views will play at least some role in their decision. ...

Resurgent Republic 1/26
Obama Underperforms Among Hispanic Voters In Florida
... President Obama continues to underperform among Florida Hispanic voters and has done little to bolster his standing among this critical swing state demographic since our September survey last year. ...

Gallup 1/26
Post-State of the Union Analysis
Gallup data reveal how Americans' views line up with 16 specific issues President Obama raised in his 2012 State of the Union address. ...

New York Times: Marjorie Connelly 1/26
Consumer Confusion on Where Apple Devices Are Made
The outsourcing of manufacturing jobs remains a major sore point for most Americans. But owners of some of the nation's most popular electronics -- including iPhones and iPads -- are less concerned than other Americans about where their purchases are made, according to a nationwide survey conducted by The New York Times. ...

Hollywood Reporter 1/25
Time Warner Opens Medialab at New York Headquarters
Time Warner will on Wednesday formally unveil a newly established Medialab at its midtown Manhattan headquarters designed to provide cutting-edge research for its media and entertainment operations in the digital age. ...

Democracy Corps 1/25
President Obama Scores With Middle Class Message
Dial testing and follow-up focus groups with 50 swing voters in Denver, Colorado, show that President Obama's populist defense of the middle class and their priorities in his State of the Union scored with voters. The President generated strong responses on energy, education and foreign policy, but most important, he made impressive gains on a range of economic measures. ...

ABC News 1/25
Obama Leads by Wide Margins Among Latinos
Only nine months from Election Day, Latino voters -- the nation's fastest-growing voting bloc -- favor President Obama over all the Republican candidates by a wide margin, according to a new poll conducted by Latino Decisions for Univision News and ABC News, a welcome boost for a White House facing a difficult reelection fight. ...

National Journal 1/25
Americans Hold Nuanced Views on Romney, Payroll Cut
A plurality of Americans surveyed favor paying for an extension of the payroll-tax cut with a combination of spending cuts and higher taxes on the wealthy, the plan favored by Democrats, according to the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll. ...

Gallup 1/25
Financial Worries Rival Those of 1992
Americans' worries about maintaining their standard of living (51%), or being able to pay medical bills (43%) or losing their job (34%) in the next 12 months are among the highest Gallup has measured in the past 20 years, on par with the levels seen in 1991 and 1992. ...

Mark Mellman 1/25
Mean and extreme
... The "we-hate-moderates" positioning sells well in Republican primaries, but in 2010, moderates, together with liberals, made up 58 percent of the November electorate, and in the last presidential year, that segment comprised 66 percent of the voters. ...

CBS News 1/24
Most Americans agree with 'Buffett rule' concept
The government taxes income earned through investments at a lower tax rate income earned from working, but half of Americans think that should change, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 1/24
Sharp Swings in Political Popularity as Wild Ride Continues
Unfavorable views of Mitt Romney have soared, doubts about Newt Gingrich remain widespread and Barack Obama has advanced to his highest personal popularity in more than a year -- all in advance of the State of the Union address in which Obama makes his case for a second term. ...

Gallup 1/24
U.S. Economic Confidence Best Since May
U.S. economic confidence is at -25 in the week ending Jan. 22, improved from -29 the prior week and the best since the week ending May 22, 2011. ...

Michael Tesler, Brown University 1/23
Racial Attitudes a Predictor of Obama Vote Preference
Several recent studies by political scientists show racial and ethnocentric attitudes were not only strongly related to 2008 voting behavior, but that these attitudes had a much larger influence on that year's presidential race than they had on the all-white presidential contests of the past. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 1/23
The State of the Union -- In the Public's Eyes
Where does public opinion stand on the eve of President Obama's third State of the Union address? Here's the tale of the tape. ...

Pew 1/23
Public Priorities: Deficit Rising, Terrorism Slipping
As the 2012 State of the Union approaches, the public continues to give the highest priority to economic issues. Fully 86% say that strengthening the economy should be a top priority for the president and Congress this year, and 82% rate improving the job situation as a top priority. ...

Gallup: Lydia Saad 1/23
U.S. Economy Most Toxic of 24 Issues
As President Barack Obama prepares his annual address to Congress, Americans are broadly dissatisfied with the state of the nation in several specific issue areas, with satisfaction down sharply in some cases since January 2008. ...

Washington Post 1/23
Survey paints portrait of black women in America
In a new nationwide survey conducted by The Washington Post and the Kaiser Family Foundation, a complex portrait emerges of black women who feel confident but vulnerable, who have high self-esteem and see physical beauty as important, who find career success more vital to them than marriage. ...

Ronald Brownstein 1/22
Primary Contest Could Divide GOP Along Clear, Sharp Lines
In South Carolina it appears the two tribes of the Republican Party have settled on their champions for a contest that could divide the party along clear, sharp lines of class, ideology and religious devotion. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 1/21
Newt Gingrich's Turn to Shine
A smashing result among voters who focused on the pre-primary debates lifted Newt Gingrich to victory in South Carolina, breathing new life into his candidacy -- and dealing a stern blow to Mitt Romney, who struggled especially with the state's evangelical and strongly conservative voters. ...

Samuel J. Best, U. of Connecticut 1/21
How Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina primary
... More than a third of voters - 34 percent - in the South Carolina Republican primary strongly support the Tea Party movement. They overwhelmingly gravitated toward Newt Gingrich, backing him by more than a two-to-one margin over Mitt Romney, 47 percent to 21 percent. ...

John Perry, University of California, Riverside 1/21
Needed: More Political Dimensions
One dimension -- left to right -- doesn't suffice to deal with today's political reality. ... We seem to need at least three dimensions. ...

Gallup: Jeffrey M. Jones 1/20
Obama Averages 44% Approval in 3rd Year
President Barack Obama averaged 44% job approval for his third full year in office, which ended Jan. 19. His third-year average is down slightly from his second-year average of 47% and much lower than his first-year average of 57%. ...

Charlie Cook 1/20
Congress's approval ratings can't get much worse
... With the exception of the immediate aftermath of extraordinary events like 9/11, the public routinely holds Congress in, as they say, "minimum high regard." But now, the new norm is record lows. ...

Pew 1/19
Obama: Weak Job Ratings, But Positive Personal Image
Barack Obama begins his fourth year in office facing a struggling economy, an unhappy public, and a lower job approval rating than most of his recent predecessors at a comparable point in their presidencies. ...

Andrew Gelman, Columbia University 1/19
Governor Romney, Meet Governor Dukakis
... I wouldn't be surprised if, once he has locked up the Republican nomination, Romney takes a big lead in a head-to-head matchup with Obama. ...

New York Times 1/19
Poll Sees Shift in Independent Vote, a Hurdle for Obama
President Obama opens his re-election bid facing significant obstacles among independent voters, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, with the critical piece of the electorate that cemented his victory four years ago open to denying him a second term. ...

Washington Post 1/18
Electorate is sharply split over Obama
As President Obama prepares to give his third State of the Union address next week, he faces a dispirited and polarized electorate that is sharply divided over his record, worried about the pace of the economic recovery and deeply pessimistic about the country's trajectory. ...

Gallup: Jeffrey M. Jones 1/18
Romney, Santorum Tie for Lead in GOP Positive Intensity
Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum currently generate the strongest positive reactions among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide, with Positive Intensity Scores of +12, and lead the other contenders by a significant margin. ...

Larry J. Sabato 1/17
What the Polls Can't Tell Us: Anything Can Change
At the start of each presidential election, we think we have a good sense of what will happen. We know the incumbent, the candidates, the conditions and the polls. But then, in most years, the roller-coaster reality of politics makes a jumble of many of our assumptions. ...

Pew 1/17
Impact of Super PACs
... Fully 65% of those who are aware of the new rules on independent expenditures say they are having a negative effect on the 2012 presidential campaign. ...

Washington Post: Dan Balz and Jon Cohen 1/17
Most in poll think Romney will clinch GOP nomination
Mitt Romney holds a strong lead nationally in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, with a 2 to 1 advantage over his closest competitors, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 1/16
Congress Hits a New Low in Approval
Hammered by bipartisan discontent with its partisan rancor, the U.S. Congress reconvenes Tuesday with its lowest approval rating on record in polls dating back nearly 40 years -- ideal fodder not just for late-night comedians, but also for President Obama in the election year ahead. ...

Gallup: Frank Newport 1/16
Romney Has 23-Point GOP Lead Nationally
Mitt Romney has climbed to a commanding 23-point lead over his nearest competitor among Republican registered voters nationally, based on interviewing conducted Jan. 11-15. ...

Gallup: Lydia Saad 1/16
Obama Faces Challenging Re-Election Climate
The U.S. political and economic environment at the start of 2012 is a challenging one for President Barack Obama as he seeks re-election. However, Gallup trends suggest that it is too soon to make any firm predictions about the outcome. ...

Dan Hopkins, Georgetown University 1/13
A magical ride for polls
... [T]here is something about contemporary polls that is impressive and unexpected, if not a touch magical: the fact that overall, they remain accurate in forecasting general election outcomes. ...

Democracy Corps 1/13
Primary contest, pre-Christmas showdown put GOP at risk
This first Democracy Corps national survey of the New Year shows Republicans at risk at every level. ...

Gallup 1/13
Slightly More Want Obama to Set Course Than GOP
Americans say they want Barack Obama (46%) rather than the Republicans in Congress (42%) to have more influence over the direction the nation takes in the next year. ...

Pew 1/12
Many Voters Unaware of Basic Facts about GOP Candidates
Many voters do not know basic facts about the Republican candidates running for president or the early primary calendar. While a sizable majority (69%) knows that Newt Gingrich served as speaker of the House, only about half (53%) identify Massachusetts as the state where Mitt Romney served as governor. ...

Gallup 1/12
Conservatives Remain the Largest Ideological Group
Political ideology in the U.S. held steady in 2011, with 40% of Americans continuing to describe their views as conservative, 35% as moderate, and 21% as liberal. ...

Pew 1/12
Certain in Their Beliefs, Uncertain of Their Place in Society
... Many Mormons feel they are misunderstood, discriminated against and not accepted by other Americans as part of mainstream society. Yet, at the same time, a majority of Mormons think that acceptance of Mormonism is rising. ...

Matthew Dickinson, Middlebury College 1/12
Why Mitt Romney Is A Weak Candidate
... Romney is ahead not because he is a strong candidate. It is because his opponents and their supporters face a classic collective action problem: each would prefer any of the other non-Mitts as the nominee, but none are willing to sacrifice their own candidacy to make it happen. ...

Pew 1/11
Rising Share of Americans See Conflict Between Rich, Poor
... Virtually all major demographic groups now perceive significantly more class conflict than two years ago. ...

Gallup 1/11
National Satisfaction Up Slightly at Start of 2012, to 18%
Eighteen percent of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States today, a slight improvement from the latter half of 2011, when satisfaction levels ranged from 11% to 16%. ...

David R. Jones, Baruch College 1/11
What the N.H. Exit Polls Say about South Carolina
With the primary season moving south in the coming weeks, what do the New Hampshire exit polls suggest about each candidate’s potential strengths and weaknesses in South Carolina? ...

CNN 1/11
Romney dominates more moderate New Hampshire
... Mitt Romney cruised to victory in New Hampshire on Tuesday night, riding a wave of support from mainstream Yankee Republicans -- fiscally conservative, socially moderate and politically pragmatic. The former Massachusetts governor swept nearly every group of voters, whether categorized by income, ideology or religion. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 1/11
New Hampshire Is Romney's; What Says S.C.?
Perceptions of electability, a fractured opposition and a strong showing in his weaker groups lifted Mitt Romney to victory in the New Hampshire Republican primary -- but without settling how he may play in some of the more conservative climes ahead. ...

Washington Post 1/11
How Romney won the New Hampshire primary
Romney swept to a big win in New Hampshire, with significant strength among the Republican and conservative base, and a big advantage as the most electable GOP candidate. ...

Reuters 1/10
Romney leads Republicans, narrows gap with Obama
U.S. presidential hopeful Mitt Romney has sailed farther ahead of rival Republican candidates nationally and narrowed President Barack Obama's lead in the White House race, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. ...Gallup 1/10
Majority of Conservatives See Romney as 'Acceptable'
Mitt Romney is the now the only candidate that a majority of conservative and moderate/liberal Republicans nationwide see as an "acceptable" GOP nominee for president. ...

CBS News 1/9
58% of Republicans want more presidential choices
The nominating process may officially be underway, but Republicans have yet to enthusiastically embrace a potential nominee for president - and despite the late date, most would like to see other candidates enter the race, according to a new CBS News poll. ...

Pew 1/9
GOP Voters Still Unenthused About Presidential Field
On the eve of the New Hampshire primary, Republican voters continue to express mixed views of the party's presidential field. ...

Gallup 1/9
Record-High 40% of Americans Identify as Independents
The percentage of Americans identifying as political independents increased in 2011, as is common in a non-election year, although the 40% who did so is the highest Gallup has measured, by one percentage point. ...

National Journal 1/7
What We've Learned
More than three years into the deepest economic downturn since the Depression, Americans are resilient, wary, and divided. That's a central message from the 11 Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor polls conducted each quarter since April 2009. ...

John Avlon 1/7
New Hampshire -- all about the independents
New Hampshire is all about the independents. And that's why it's the best test of general election electability. While Iowa's caucuses are disproportionately dominated by social conservatives, in New Hampshire's open primary, independents can vote -- and they make up more than 40% of the local electorate. ...

Ronald Brownstein 1/6
S.C. Poll Shows Narrowing Window for Romney Foes
Mitt Romney's strong showing in Friday's CNN/Time/ORC South Carolina poll shows how narrow a window his opponents may have to derail him. The poll offers a powerful reminder of how much each caucus and primary resets the dynamic in the states that follow-the same way each shot in billiards reshapes the table. ...

Ronald Brownstein 1/4
Why Romney and Santorum Fought to a Draw in Iowa
Ron Paul expanded the electorate. Mitt Romney slightly advanced from his key beachheads in 2008. Evangelical Christians splintered but gave Rick Santorum the largest slice of their votes. Those dynamics, captured in the Edison Research National Election Pool entrance poll at the Iowa caucuses, explained the tight three-way race among the top contenders in Iowa. ...

CBS News: Samuel J. Best 1/4
Iowa caucus results: Why the race was so close
In the past six months, Iowa Republicans wavered repeatedly in their presidential preferences, sending six different candidates to the top of the pre-election polls in the Hawkeye state. Tuesday night seemingly failed to bring any greater clarity to their preferences. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 1/4
Iowa Mash-up Settles Nothing
... Rick Santorum took advantage of Romney’s weak spots, winning evangelical and very conservative voters, and those focused on moral character, as well as late-deciders. One question is how well Santorum plays in states with fewer evangelicals participating; they accounted for a broad 58 percent in Iowa. Another is how well he withstands the new found scrutiny his showing is sure to bring. ...

CNN 1/4
Iowa didn't change many N.H. minds
The Iowa caucus results appear to have changed few minds in New Hampshire, at least among likely GOP primary voters who watched the caucus results tonight, according to a new survey. But a CNN/ORC International Poll also indicates that former Sen. Rick Santorum gained a small amount of support among Iowa caucus-watchers, moving from 5% to 10% among that group. ...

New York Times 1/4
Electability and Principles Split Iowa Votes
Republicans appeared sharply divided between those whose top priority is defeating President Obama and those seeking someone representing traditional conservative principles and religious values, according to a poll of voters entering the Iowa Republican caucuses on Tuesday. ...

Washington Post: Jon Cohen 1/3
Ahead of the Numbers: The Iowa 'Entrance Poll'
The Tuesday evening kick-off for the Republican nomination contest brings not only the first real votes of 2012, but also the first analyses (and bogus analyses) of exit polls. ...

Gallup 1/2
GOP 2012 Battle to Date Most Akin to Dems in 2003
The lead in the Republican nomination race has thus far changed seven times since May in Gallup polling. Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich each held the top spot at various points in 2011, with Romney's standing rising and falling as other candidates surged and faded. ...

Washington Post: Peyton M. Craighill 1/1
Rating 2012: Personally, for the country and for the world
A New Year's note from the public: 2012 looks bright for me, not so hot for the rest of the country and worse still for the world in general. ...

Matthew Dickinson, Middlebury College 1/1
Iowa Poll: The Two Most Important Things to Know
Here are two most important aspects of the Des Moines Register's poll to ponder with your morning coffee and aspirin: the composition of the respondent pool and when Santorum's surge began. ...

J. Ann Selzer 1/1
Varying scenarios, varying results
At some point, we have to stop interviewing for our Iowa Poll and publish our findings. That is just a fact of life. But what if there is a late-breaking surge of evangelicals who decide to caucus at the last moment? ...

Des Moines Register 1/1/12
Romney leads Paul in new Iowa Poll; Santorum surges
The Des Moines Register's latest Iowa Poll shows a surprise three-way match-up in contention to win the Iowa Republican caucuses: Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum. ...

Tad Devine 12/31/11
Three ads that can seal the deal for Romney
... If Romney runs the right ads -- which he has the resources to do -- he can seal the nomination, even if a surge by Ron Paul or Rick Santorum spoils his day in Iowa. ...

Yahoo! News: David Chalian 12/31
Ann Selzer, queen of the Iowa caucuses
... Polling the likely Iowa caucusgoing electorate is like finding the proverbial needle in the haystack, but Selzer clearly welcomes the challenge. ...

J. Ann Selzer
Polling the Iowa Caucuses
... The long-standing axiom of caucus politics in Iowa is to organize, organize, organize and then get hot at the end. Of the two elements, getting hot is far more important. ... [From The Polling Report archives.]

NBC News 12/30
Three storylines from our Iowa poll
... With just four days left until the Jan. 3 caucuses, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are running neck and neck, with Romney at 23% among likely caucus-goers and Paul at 21%. ... But the poll contains three big storylines beyond the horserace numbers. ...

Gallup 12/29
Americans See Views of GOP Candidates Closer to Own
Americans perceive Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney, and Ron Paul as closest to themselves ideologically, and Michele Bachmann and Barack Obama as furthest away. ...

Ronald Brownstein 12/28
Divide and Conquer
The latest CNN/Time/ORC surveys released this afternoon for New Hampshire, and especially Iowa, show that on the eve of the first actual voting, the GOP race is reverting to the pattern that has defined it for most of this year: the party's more pragmatic and secular circles are consolidating around Mitt Romney more than the GOP's more ideological and evangelical wings are consolidating around any single alternative to him. ...

Pew 12/28
Most Latinos Oppose Obama's Deportation Policy
By a ratio of more than two-to-one (59% versus 27%), Latinos disapprove of the way the Obama administration is handling deportations of unauthorized immigrants, according to a new national survey of Latino adults by the Pew Hispanic Center. ...

David P. Redlawsk & Caroline J. Tolbert 12/27
What Do Iowans Want in a Candidate?
Let's start here: the premise that the economy is less important in Iowa because things aren't as bad is simply wrong. ...

Theda Skocpol & Vanessa Williamson 12/26
Whose Tea Party Is It?
Newt Gingrich's brief turn as presidential front-runner was only the latest paroxysm of a tumultuous Republican primary season. What's going on? Tensions within the Tea Party help explain the volatility of the Republican primary campaign, as candidates seek to appeal to competing elements of the Tea Party with varying success. ...

Lawrence Jacobs 12/23
What Do Political Polls Really Accomplish?
... Although polls are (mistakenly) equated with tailoring policy to majority opinion, private surveys are primarily geared today to manipulating public opinion – not responding to it. ...

Andrew Gelman 12/22
Do We Hate the Rich or Don't We?
... A vast majority of Americans -- including half of all self-identified Republicans -- think there is "too much power in the hands of a few rich people and large corporations." ... On the other hand, close to 60 percent of Americans do not see the country as "divided into haves and have-nots." ... What gives? ...

Alan I. Abramowitz 12/22
The Anti-Incumbent Election Myth
... When they vote in a House or Senate election, Americans cast their ballots based on their evaluation of their own representative or senator. As a result, the reelection rates for House and Senate incumbents are generally quite high, averaging over 95% for House incumbents and over 80% for Senate incumbents in recent years. ...

Gallup 12/22
Satisfaction in 2011 Ranks as Second Lowest Since 1979
Throughout 2011, an average of 17% of Americans said they were satisfied with the way things are going in the United States. That is the second-lowest annual average in the more than 30-year history of the question, after the 15% from 2008. ...

Kaiser (pdf) 12/21
Kaiser Health Tracking Poll
After a bumpy fall, American opinion toward the 2010 health reform law returned to the nearly even divide now familiar to opinion watchers, a divide that masks the lasting partisan gap in favorability that has existed since passage. ...

CBS News 12/20
Most back raising taxes on millionaires
Six in ten Americans believe Congress should raise taxes on Americans earning more than $1 million per year, according to a new CBS News poll, while only 35 percent oppose such an increase. ...

Ronald Brownstein 12/20
The Optimism Gap
... For Obama, the most plausible road to reelection continues to look like one that accelerates the Democrats' generation-long transformation from a coalition centered on whites who work with their hands to an upstairs-downstairs alliance revolving primarily around minorities, young people, and well-educated whites, especially women.

Pew 12/20
Tax System Seen as Unfair, in Need of Overhaul
Public dissatisfaction with the tax system has grown over the past decade, and the focus of the public's frustration is not how much they themselves pay, but rather the impression that wealthy people are not paying their fair share. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 12/20
Gingrich, Romney Go to a Tie
Newt Gingrich has relinquished sole front-runner status almost as quickly as he gained it, landing at a dead heat with Mitt Romney in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll. And as the GOP hopefuls battle it out, ratings of Barack Obama's prospects have warmed. ...

Washington Post 12/19
Obama's job-approval rating is highest since March
After a difficult summer and a contentious fall, President Obama's job-approval ratings are showing signs of improvement -- a crucial indicator of his reelection chances as he positions himself to seek a second term. ...

Gallup 12/19
Congress Ends 2011 With Record-Low 11% Approval
A new record-low 11% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, the lowest single rating in Gallup's history of asking this question since 1974. This earns Congress a 17% yearly average for 2011, the lowest annual congressional approval rating in Gallup history. ...

MSNBC.com 12/18
Gov. Haley questions poll numbers
Appearing on "Meet the Press" Sunday, South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley seemed to question the validity of a South Carolina poll that showed her approval rating at 35 percent because, she claimed, the poll also showed that President Obama would win South Carolina, a reliably Republican state over the past three decades. ...

Ronald Brownstein 12/18
Still Frozen: Obama's Ratings Are Consistently Low
Attitudes toward President Obama remain chilly in the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll. But the first hint of a spring breeze might be blowing toward the White House in the form of warming expectations about the economy's trajectory. ...

William Galston 12/17
Why Obama's New Populism May Sink His Campaign
President Obama's much-heralded speech in Osawatomie, Kansas, focused on inequality, which, he argued, is undermining our prosperity, weakening our democracy, and shrinking our middle class. While there's a serious data-based argument to be made in favor of that view, recent surveys suggest that most Americans don't share it. ...

Christian Science Monitor 12/16
A third-party candidate in 2012?
A third-party presidential candidate is likely in 2012, introducing considerable uncertainty into the battle to win control of Congress, Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg says. ...

NYT Magazine: The Ethicist 12/16
The Polls Don't Lie
Having participated in political polls in the past, I am wondering how I should respond if asked whether I approve of President Obama's job performance. ...

Pew 12/15
Frustration with Congress Could Hurt GOP Incumbents
Public discontent with Congress has reached record levels, and the implications for incumbents in next year's elections could be stark. ...

Kennedy School 12/15
Millennials predict Obama will lose
A new national poll of America's 18- to 29- year olds by Harvard's Institute of Politics, located at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, finds more Millennials predict President Barack Obama will lose his bid for re-election (36%) than win (30%). ...

Sasha Issenberg 12/15
'Likely Voters' Lie
... Campaigns are, in essence, relying less on voters' honesty and self-awareness to determine who is a likely voter. ...

Ronald Brownstein 12/15
Where Obama Has Slipped
There's an ominous trend for President Obama in the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll: not only is his overall approval rating lagging, but he's lost as much (or even more) ground among groups that favored him in 2008 as among those who resisted him last time. ...

Gallup 12/13
Romney, Gingrich Have Edge Over Obama in Swing States
Registered voters in 12 key swing states give a slight edge to the two leading Republican presidential candidates, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, over Barack Obama as their preference for president in the 2012 election. ...

Ronald Brownstein 12/13
Anger With Congress At '06, '10 Levels
Across a wide array of measures, Americans are now as dissatisfied with Congress as they were immediately before the 2006 and 2010 electoral landslides that ousted the majority party in one or both chambers, according to a year-end United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll. ...

Pew 12/13
Gingrich Leads, But GOP Voters Haven't Ruled Out Romney
Newt Gingrich holds a substantial 35% to 21% lead over Mitt Romney among Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters who say they are very likely to vote in the GOP primaries or caucuses. But clear majorities say there is at least a chance they would vote for either Gingrich or Romney in Republican primaries in their state. ...

Public Policy Institute of California 12/13
California: Most Favor Governor's Tax Proposal
Most Californians favor Governor Jerry Brown's proposal to temporarily increase the state sales tax and the income taxes of high earners, according to a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California. ...

USA Today 12/12
Swing States Poll: Downbeat Dems, resurgent Republicans
President Obama is moving to energize the Democratic base for his re-election campaign, but in the case of a dozen battleground states, he'll have to work harder than four years ago to find it. ...

Bloomberg 12/12
Iowa Focus Group: Evangelical Voters and Newt Gingrich
... The discussion offered insight into potential vulnerabilities for Gingrich among a critical group of voters. In the 2008 Republican caucuses, exit polls showed 60 percent who attended described themselves as born-again or evangelicals. ...

Kaiser Family Foundation/NPR (pdf) 12/12
Long-Term Unemployed Survey
... When it comes to who or what they hold responsible for the country's economic situation, the long-term un- and underemployed dish out blame to Wall Street financial institutions, Congress, changes in the global economy, and (to a somewhat lesser extent) President Obama. ...

Gallup 12/12
64% Rate Honesty, Ethics of Members of Congress Low
Sixty-four percent of Americans rate the honesty and ethical standards of members of Congress as "low" or "very low," tying the record "low"/"very low" rating Gallup has measured for any profession historically. ...

Democracy Corps 12/9
GOP Incumbents Out of Touch, Increasingly Vulnerable
The latest Democracy Corps survey of the Republican House battleground shows the incumbents out of touch with their districts, a climate less favorable to Republicans, weakening support and vulnerability to attack. ...

Gallup 12/9
Record High Anti-Incumbent Sentiment Toward Congress
About three-quarters of registered voters (76%) say most members of Congress do not deserve re-election, the highest such percentage Gallup has measured in its 19-year history of asking this question. ...

Gallup 12/8
Republicans Less Enthusiastic About Voting in 2012
Republicans' enthusiasm about voting in the election for president next year has decreased, with 49% of Republicans and independents who lean Republican now saying they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, down from 58% in September. This narrows the gap between them and Democrats. ...

Barry Sussman 12/7
Why not make a Fox question standard in all news polls?
... I often feel Obama is being cheated on his approval ratings, compared to past presidents. I think his ratings are dragged down by Fox News. ...

CBS News 12/6
Newt Gingrich strong with Iowa evangelicals, Tea Partiers
Newt Gingrich's14-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers is grounded in large part in support from Tea Party and evangelical voters, who have a far more positive view of Gingrich than they do Romney, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll. ...

Ronald Brownstein 12/6
Newt's Reach
What's the scariest news for Mitt Romney in the nearly mirror-image polls out today showing Newt Gingrich rocketing into the lead in Iowa, South Carolina and nationally? The short answer: the breadth of Gingrich's support. ...

Pew 12/6
Illegal Immigration: Gaps Between and Within Parties
The public continues to support tough measures to crack down on illegal immigration, but also a path to citizenship for those in the country illegally. ...

Northwestern University 12/6
A Rare Survey of the One Percent
Though little reliable survey research exists about the nation's wealthiest one percent, public discourse is rife with claims about their opinions and attitudes. Now a Northwestern University pilot study sheds light on philanthropic and other behaviors of the so-called one percent. ...

Washington Post 12/6
Gingrich emerges as clear front-runner in Iowa
Propelled by his debate performances and the demise of Herman Cain's candidacy, former House speaker Newt Gingrich sits atop the Republican presidential field in Iowa with a clear lead over his closest competitors, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. ...

Gallup 12/5
Republicans See Gingrich, Romney as 'Acceptable'
Newt Gingrich (62%) and Mitt Romney (54%) are the only two candidates Republicans say would be acceptable presidential nominees from their party, emphasizing the degree to which the GOP race has narrowed down to these two men at this juncture. ...

Gallup 12/5
 '1%' Is More Republican, but Not More Conservative
Politically, the wealthiest 1% of Americans -- those in households earning $500,000 or more annually -- are somewhat to the right of the remaining 99%, but more in terms of party identification than self-professed ideology. ...

Des Moines Register 12/3
Iowa Poll: Newt Gingrich leads three-candidate race
Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich has carved out a clear lead in what's become a three-candidate race in Iowa, according to The Des Moines Register's new Iowa Poll. ...

Carl Bialik 12/3
Pollsters Go Mobile
... Not only have young adults continued to refrain from getting a wired phone as they aged, but older adults who have had landlines for decades are joining the bandwagon. This has major implications for pollsters, who have enough problems getting Americans to talk to them even when they can reach them by phone. ...

Danny Hayes 12/2
What influences public views on Iran action?
... Public opinion in foreign affairs is driven not only by Americans' own general preferences for force or diplomacy, but also by the arguments made by political leaders. ...

Gallup 12/2
Obama's Nov. Approval Weak From Historical Perspective
President Obama's 43% average job approval rating last month ranks as one of the lowest for an elected president in November of his third year in office. Only Jimmy Carter had a lower rating, at 40%. ...

Hofstra University (pdf) 12/1
Dark mood in the suburbs
... A year before the 2012 elections, President Obama is in trouble in the suburbs, with residents looking for someone else for the White House, even if they have not settled on just who that might be. ...

Brad Plumer 12/1
Can a hot day persuade people that global warming is real?
Weather isn't the same thing as climate. Just because it's sunny or chilly on a given day doesn't tell us all that much about long-term temperature trends. Even so, plenty of research suggests that local weather does heavily influence how people think about climate change. ...

Chris Moody 12/1
Advice for GOP Governors: Always Blame Washington
... How can Republicans do a better job of talking about Occupy Wall Street? ... [Frank] Luntz offered tips on how Republicans could discuss the grievances of the Occupiers, and help the governors better handle all these new questions from constituents about "income inequality" and "paying your fair share." ...

Pew 12/1
Evidence of Global Warming
The percentage of Americans who say there is solid evidence of global warming has increased modestly over the past two years. ...

Kaiser Family Foundation 11/30
The Most Popular Provision in the ACA?
In our most recent monthly tracking poll, we asked the American people what elements of the health reform law they like and dislike. Surprisingly, the runaway favorite was a relatively obscure requirement that health plans provide consumers with a short, easy to understand description of their benefits and coverage. ...

Washington Post 11/30
Gingrich, Romney equally well liked among conservatives
On the basic question of personal popularity, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former House speaker Newt Gingrich get roughly equally positive ratings from conservatives, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. ...

William Galston 11/30
Any Way You Slice It, Obama Is In Trouble
... The bottom line is that unless things turn around considerably in the next eleven months, key parts of Obama's winning 2008 coalition are poised to deliver both lower margins and smaller shares of the electorate than they did in 2008. ...

Mark Mellman 11/30
Is Obama toast in 2012?
If Barack Obama is "toast," as one now-infamous headline conjectured, why is the broadest-based forecast (Pollyvote) projecting the president will be reelected with 51.1 percent of the vote? ...

Kaiser Family Foundation (pdf) 11/30
Public Opinion on Health Care Issues
The share of the public with an unfavorable view of the health reform law declined between October and November, returning more to the split in opinion running along partisan lines we have seen in the past, but Americans overall remain somewhat more likely to have an unfavorable than a favorable view of the law. ...

Pew 11/29
More Now Disagree with Tea Party
Since the 2010 midterm elections, the Tea Party has not only lost support nationwide, but also in the congressional districts represented by members of the House Tea Party Caucus. ...

Andrew Gelman 11/28
Why Are Primaries Hard To Predict?
... And while presidential elections are predictable, the nominating contests that choose the candidates are not. ...

The Atlantic 11/25
The Polling Guru of the Iowa Caucuses
On Jan. 3, the Iowa caucuses will kick off the presidential primaries. Though plenty of pollsters will be publishing surveys aiming to predict the outcome, there's just one that most political insiders will trust: the Iowa Poll, conducted for the Des Moines Register for more than two decades by J. Ann Selzer. ...

Jonathan Bernstein 11/24
Fifteen Things Political Junkies Should Be Thankful For
... We're politics fans, the way some people are sports fans or movie buffs or weather fans. . . . We all know, too, that this has been a great year for our chosen sport. So, with one last caveat that, of course, there are terribly important things at stake and we shouldn't really just sit back as passive spectators, here's the list of what political junkies should be thankful for. ...

John Halpin and Ruy Teixeira 11/23
Demographics vs. Economics in the Presidential Election
... Heading into 2012, the primary strategic questions will be: Will President Obama withstand continued doubts about the economy and his approach to recovery? Will the president hold sufficient support among communities of color, educated whites, Millennials, single women, and seculars and avoid a catastrophic meltdown among white working-class voters? ...

National Journal 11/23
Unlike Super Committee, Public United on Taxing Wealthy
The deficit-reduction super committee collapsed on Monday after its members failed to negotiate a proposal to reduce the nation's debt, and this week's United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll showed voters likewise struggling to find common, bipartisan ground on specific ways to trim the federal deficit. ...

Pew Forum 11/23
Romney's Mormon Faith Likely a Factor in Primaries
... White evangelical Protestants -- a key element of the GOP electoral base -- are more inclined than the public as a whole to view Mormonism as a non-Christian faith. And this view is linked to opinions about Romney. ...

New York Times 11/23
George Gallup Jr., of Polling Family, Dies at 81
George Gallup Jr., who led the firm that his father made all but synonymous with polling and expanded it to become a barometer of Americans' views on religion as well as their political attitudes, died on Monday in Princeton, N.J. ...

Ronald Brownstein 11/22
Public Opposes Sequestration
With the congressional deficit-reduction super committee collapsing into stalemate, a solid majority of Americans say that Congress should block the automatic spending cuts established as a fallback if the panel deadlocked....

Thomas B. Edsall 11/22
The White Party
... With less than a year to go until the election, poll data suggest that the Republican "white" strategy has a chance of working. Since 2008, the Republican Party's biggest gains, and Obama's sharpest declines, have been among white voters. ...

Gallup 11/21
Support for 'Occupy' Unchanged, More Criticize Approach
Americans have grown a bit more critical over the past month of the methods used by Occupy Wall Street protesters; however, their overall view of the movement and position on its goals have not changed. ...

Chris Cillizza 11/20
Obama's base of support remains solid heading into 2012
Everyone knows that President Obama has a problem with his political base heading into 2012. Except that he doesn't. ...

Religion News Service 11/17
Tea Party, Occupy movements fail to capture hearts
In a war between the Tea Party and the Occupy Wall Street movement to capture the hearts of Americans, who wins? According to a new poll, it's a draw. ...

Pew 11/17
Obama Job Approval Edges Up
With much of the recent political focus on the ever-changing Republican presidential nomination race, Barack Obama's job rating has improved modestly over the past month, although few Americans (35%) approve of the way he is handling the economy. ...

Robert Blendon, Minah Kang Kim, John Benson 11/17
The Public, Political Parties, and Stem-Cell Research
... A majority of Americans express pro–stem-cell-research views in response to all four of the questions we considered. ... However, on every poll measure for which data are available, Republicans are less supportive than Democrats. ...

Bloomberg 11/17
Republicans on Romney
Republican primary voters are torn between their confidence in Mitt Romney's professional competence and doubts about his political character. ...

Los Angeles Times 11/17
California Republicans favor Romney
A collapse in support for Texas Gov. Rick Perry has left Mitt Romney as the clear front-runner in California's Republican presidential primary, but the former Massachusetts governor is still struggling to rally the party's most conservative voters. ...

PPIC 11/17
CA: Most Say Higher Ed System Heading in Wrong Direction
Most Californians say the state's public higher education system is headed in the wrong direction, according to a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California. ...

Gallup 11/16
Americans Tilt Toward Favoring Repeal of Healthcare Law
Given a choice, 47% of Americans favor repealing the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, while 42% want it kept in place. Views on this issue are highly partisan, with Republicans strongly in favor of repeal and the large majority of Democrats wanting the law kept in place. ...

Bloomberg 11/16
Romney Holds Commanding Lead in N.H.
Mitt Romney holds a commanding lead in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, more than double the support for his nearest rival, Texas congressman Ron Paul. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 11/16
One in Four Women Reports Workplace Harassment
More than a political issue, sexual harassment in the workplace is a common experience among women — and source of worry among men -- in American society. ...

Bloomberg 11/15
Iowa: GOP Candidates in Four-Way Dead Heat
Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are in a dead heat as the top choices for Iowans likely to attend the Jan. 3 Republican presidential caucuses. ...

Asia Foundation 11/15
Survey of the Afghan People
While nearly half (46%) of Afghans say their country is moving in the right direction, more respondents than at any time since The Asia Foundation began polling there in 2004 say Afghanistan is headed in the wrong direction. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 11/14
Views on Herman Cain Increasingly Negative
Unfavorable views of Herman Cain have soared by 17 points in the face of allegations of past sexual harassment, including a sharp increase in negative views of Cain within his own party. ...

Ronald Brownstein 11/14
Why Newt is Next in Line
The latest CNN/ORC national survey showing Newt Gingrich surging to a statistical tie with Mitt Romney captures not only the continuing volatility of the GOP's most conservative wing, but cracks in Romney's standing among the party's more managerial and moderate voters. ...

NBC News 11/13
GOP support for Perry plummets after debate flub
After his flub at a Republican debate on Wednesday, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has seen his support plummet among GOP primary voters, according to a re-contact of Republicans surveyed in this month’s NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. ...

CBS News 11/12
Three in four back Iraq troop pullout
Three in four Americans support President Obama's decisions to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of the year, a new CBS News survey finds. ...

William Galston (pdf) 11/10
One Year to Go: Obama's Uphill Battle for Reelection
... If the election pitting Obama against the strongest potential Republican nominee, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, were held tomorrow, the president would probably lose. But a year is a very long time in American politics, and three factors could change the odds in Obama's favor. ...

Pew 11/10
Partisan Divide Over Alternative Energy Widens
Public support for increased federal funding on research into alternative energy technology, including solar technology, has decreased substantially since the early months of the Obama administration, with nearly all the decline coming from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. ...

Glen Bolger 11/10
Obama's Destiny: Demographics vs. Political Environment
Call it the clash of irresistible force of demography/geography versus the immovable object of the political environment. This is the conundrum facing political analysts in looking at President Obama's chances in the presidential election next year. ...

GQRR / Voter Participation Center (pdf) 11/10
Re-Energizing Unmarried Women
Unmarried women -- who make up more than a quarter of America's voting-eligible population -- today feel disengaged and alienated from politics and that threatens their participation in the next election, according to new focus group research. ...

Alan Abramowitz 11/10
Why Obama Has a Good Chance of Winning a Second Term
According to the Time-for-Change forecasting model, which has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election since 1988, Barack Obama has a good chance of winning a second term in the White House next November. ...

Brendan Nyhan & Jacob Montgomery 11/10
Forecasting 2012: How much does ideology matter?
... As you might expect, scholars have spilled a lot of ink debating the best forecasting indicators for outcomes ranging from the paths of hurricanes to stock prices. But rather than have a philosophical debate, we can evaluate this concern empirically to determine the extent to which specific forecasting models can successfully predict election outcomes beyond the range of the data used to estimate them. ...

New York Times 11/10
Hal Bruno, Director of Election Coverage at ABC, Dies at 83
Hal Bruno, who helped shape political coverage at ABC News for nearly two decades and was a frequent analyst on its radio and television broadcasts, died on Tuesday, Election Day, in Bethesda, Md. ...

Columbia Journalism Review archives 1962
Elmo Roper: A Plea for the Polls
It may be human to err, but to err time and time again, in precisely the same way, is folly of divine dimensions. I am talking about journalists -- when they tackle the job of predicting elections. ...

Univision 11/9
Obama holds advantage with Latino voters
Despite loud complaints from Latinos about high unemployment and unfulfilled campaign promises on immigration, President Obama is well situated to repeat his strong performance with Latino voters in 2012. ...

Mark Mellman 11/9
Myth of the Independent Voter
... Despite their initial attempt to adopt the independent label, leaners vote very much like partisans, giving the vast majority of their support to the party to which they feel closer. ...

David Hill 11/9
Obama's odds worse than bad
Democrats complaining about my judgment that President Obama cannot win reelection insist there's still a chance. ... As I get it, the Dumbercrat dreamers hang their hopes on the possibility that Republicans will nominate someone equally unelectable. ...

Gallup 11/9
Obama Improves on Foreign Affairs, Not on Fiscal Matters
There is a clear division in the way Americans today perceive the job President Barack Obama is doing on issues. He gets largely positive reviews for matters related to foreign affairs, particularly terrorism and the situation in Iraq. At the same time, majorities disapprove of his handling of several fiscal-related matters, including the federal budget deficit, the economy, creating jobs, and healthcare. ...

Washington Post 11/9
Most see deepening wealth gap
More than six in 10 Americans see a widening gap between the wealthy and the less well-off in this country, and about as many want the federal government to try to shrink the divide, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. ...

Resurgent Republic 11/8
Poll: America Worse Off Than When Obama Took Office
If President Obama's reelection campaign is a referendum on the incumbent, as are almost all reelection campaigns, then he remains in deep trouble a year out from the election, because Americans believe the country is worse off than when he was inaugurated. ...

Public Religion Research Institute 11/8
2011 American Values Survey
A strong majority (60 percent) of Americans say that society would be better off if the distribution of wealth were more equal. A new major national survey finds that majorities of every religious group and religiously unaffiliated Americans agree on this point. ...

ABC News 11/8
Hot and Bothered, Frustration Remains High
Americans are steamed, and the economy's providing the heat: The ABC News Frustration Index stands at 72 on its scale of 0 to 100, one of its highest readings on record. ...

National Journal 11/8
Public Doubts Congress Will Aid Economy
With time ticking down on the first session of the 112th Congress, Americans generally prefer that Congress act on priorities supported by Democratic members and the White House, but they are very pessimistic about any of these initiatives actually being realized before the end of the year, according to the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll. ...

Gallup 11/8
Cain's Image Showing Signs of Decline Amid Allegations
Herman Cain's image among Republicans is starting to get worse amid claims that he sexually harassed several women in the 1990s. ...

theGrio.com 11/8
Black Americans more optimistic, enthused about 2012
Nearly half of African-Americans remain optimistic, despite a stubbornly high black unemployment rate. And African-Americans are more enthusiastic about voting in 2012 than in previous elections. ...

NBC News 11/7
Despite national pessimism, Obama tops GOP foes
One year out before President Barack Obama faces voters in his bid for re-election, he encounters an American public that remains deeply pessimistic about the state of the country and its economy, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. ...

Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (pdf) 11/7
Americans' Health Agenda
In a period of national debate over government spending priorities, a new poll by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Harvard School of Public Health finds that a majority (52%) of Americans prefer a bigger government providing more services in health, rather than a smaller government providing fewer services in health (37%). ...

Gallup 11/7
Democrats More Liberal, Less White Than in 2008
In many respects, the demographic profile of Democrats nationwide is similar to what it was in 2008, although Democrats have become somewhat less white and more liberal than the party that nominated Barack Obama as its presidential candidate that year. ...

Pew 11/7
The Rising Age Gap in Economic Well-Being
Households headed by older adults have made dramatic gains relative to those headed by younger adults in their economic well-being over the past quarter of a century, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of a wide array of government data. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 11/7
The Question for Romney: Is Electability Enough?
What's with Mitt Romney? He's been the constant in an otherwise shifting Republican landscape, the steady leader or co-leader of the field, the standout choice in ratings of electability -- yet with weaknesses in core GOP groups, shortfalls in views of his personal attributes and no apparent momentum. ...

Washington Post 11/6
A dark mood awaits Obama and GOP rival
One year out from the 2012 election, President Obama faces the most difficult reelection environment of any White House incumbent in two decades, with economic woes at the center of the public's concerns, an electorate that is deeply pessimistic and sharply polarized, and growing questions about the president's capacity to lead. ...

Thomas B. Edsall 11/5
The Politics of Austerity
The economic collapse of 2008 transformed American politics. In place of shared abundance, battles at every level of government now focus on picking the losers who will bear the costs of deficit reduction and austerity. ...

Ronald Brownstein 11/4
Back to Basics
... Most political strategists agree that given today's cynicism about politicians, incumbents can now win reelection with an approval rating of less than 50 percent, the historic danger line. The question is how much less. ...

ABC News 11/4
Cain Shows Initial Resilience in the Face of Controversy
Herman Cain is showing initial resilience in the face of allegations of sexual impropriety: More than half of potential Republican voters say the controversy is not serious, fewer than a quarter say it makes them less likely to support Cain, and he's running essentially evenly with Mitt Romney for the Republican presidential nomination. ...

Gallup 11/4
Obama, Romney Tied Nationally and in Swing States
Registered voters nationally and in 12 key swing states are evenly divided in their preferences for president in the 2012 election between President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. ...

Des Moines Register 11/4
Iowa Poll: Many think Cain's 9-9-9 plan would help them
Two-thirds of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers earning less than $50,000 a year believe they personally would be better off or in the same situation under Herman Cain's 9-9-9 tax plan, The Des Moines Register's new Iowa Poll shows. ...

USA Today 11/3
Swing States poll: Obama's path to 2nd term an uphill climb
... While Americans across the nation are downbeat about the economy and the future, a special USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds that voters in a dozen key battleground states for the 2012 election are in an even deeper funk about their lives, Obama's tenure and the nation's politics. ...

Anti-Defamation League 11/3
Anti-Semitic Attitudes on Rise in America
A nationwide survey of the American people released today by the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) found that anti-Semitic attitudes have risen slightly in America, demonstrating once again that "anti-Semitic beliefs continue to hold a vicegrip" on a small but not insubstantial segment of America. ...

Public Religion Research Institute 11/3
Rights and Legal Protections for Transgender People
Overwhelming majorities of Americans, across the political and religious spectrum, believe that transgender people should have the same general rights and legal protections as other people, a new survey finds. ...

Pew 11/3
The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election
... According to the exit polls, younger people have voted substantially more Democratic than other age groups in each election since 2004, while older voters have cast more ballots for Republican candidates in each election since 2006. The latest national polls suggest this pattern may well continue in 2012. ...

Democracy Corps (pdf) 11/3
Winning the Economic Argument
... Democrats are losing the economic argument because right now voters do not see how increased spending helps the economy and they fear increased debt will prevent the economy from growing. ...

Nate Silver 11/3
Is Obama Toast? Handicapping the 2012 Election
... The fundamental flaw with much of what passes for political analysis is the tendency to think small. I blame soccer moms for this. ...

Matthew D. Lassiter 11/3
Who Speaks for the Silent Majority?
American politics might appear polarized along a red-blue divide, but the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street movements are claiming to do the same thing: defend the real majority against the powerful elites and vocal interest groups that control the political system. ...

New York Times 11/2
Pollster Tells of Suggestive Behavior by Cain
A Republican pollster who is supporting Rick Perry‘s presidential campaign said this morning he had witnessed sexually suggestive behavior by Herman Cain toward a woman in the 1990s, but he denied being the source of the controversy now swirling around the presidential hopeful. ...

National Journal 11/2
On Economy, Neither Party Has Voter Edge
Americans trust Democrats, by a narrow plurality, to do a better job coping with the nation’s major problems over the next few years, but neither party can claim an edge on the economic or fiscal issues likely to dominate the 2012 debate, the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll shows. ...

Andrew Rosenthal 11/2
Fantasy Politics
Americans must be the most polled people in the world. Every morning's news brings at least half a dozen headlines purporting to tell me how the public feels about their government, or other people's governments, or maybe other people's pets. ...

ABC News 11/2
Parties Struggle for Popularity; Interest in an Alternative
Favorable views of the Democratic Party have fallen to their lowest since the Reagan landslide of 1984. Even fewer Americans see the Republican Party positively, and Americans by 2-1 say they’d welcome an independent alternative for president. ...

David Hill 11/2
Obama fails all viability tests
Last week's column asserting that the president is unelectable has triggered strong responses. ... But I must stress that I am not so much making a personal prediction as drawing an informed conclusion based on all the numbers available. ...

Mark Mellman 11/2
Moderate myths and facts
... There is little doubt that Dick Morris, channeling Richard Nixon's well-worn strategy, urged Clinton to move right and that the president used both pronouncements and policy to tack toward the center as the 1996 campaign unfolded. But did it make a difference? ...

NY1 11/1
New York State Voters Support Occupy Wall Street
More New York State voters may support Occupy Wall Street than its grassroots competitor, but they say the Tea Party may have more political clout. ...

New York Times 11/1
Members of Congress Worried About Jobs: Their Own
One of the immutable laws of American politics has been that while voters typically loathe Congress, they tend to tolerate their own lawmaker. Now, with ratings for the institution in the root cellar and approval of individual lawmakers heading there, members of Congress and analysts are beginning to wonder if that law could be repealed next year. ...

National Journal 11/1
Voters Evenly Split On GOP House, Obama
American voters may be in a firing mood. Underscoring widespread discontent with all political leaders, registered voters now divide almost exactly in half on whether President Obama and the Republican majority in the House of Representatives each deserve another term in power, according to the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection poll. ...

Andrew Kohut 10/31
Religion at the Ballot Box: Correlation, but Not Causation
Religion is a significant factor in the way Americans think about politics. It has a bearing on political affiliation, political values, policy attitudes and candidate choice. No fewer than 70 percent of Americans say it is important to them that a president have strong religious beliefs. ...

Des Moines Register 10/30
Older Iowans less enthusiastic this time
Older voters say they're less likely to attend this year's Iowa GOP caucuses, a phenomenon that, if it holds, could sway turnout, the results of The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll show. ...

J. Ann Selzer 10/30
The Register's pollster asks: What’s up with older Iowans?
Pollsters have a love/hate relationship with unexpected findings. It causes a flurry of scenario-testing, historical comparisons, a multiplicity of special crosstabulations and analyses, and discussions with wiser brains. ...

Los Angeles Times 10/30
Obama's demographic support may not weather economy
Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008 by riding two of America's biggest waves of population change -- greater racial diversity and a rise in college graduates. With the 2012 election a year away, his reelection chances depend on those trends overpowering the sour impact of a bad economy. ...

Public Religion Research Institute 10/27
4-in-10 Correctly Identify Romney's Religion as Mormon
Despite continued media attention to presidential candidate Mitt Romney's Mormon religion, only about four-in-ten Americans (42 percent) correctly identify Romney as Mormon, a new survey finds. ...

Charlie Cook 10/27
Underwater
With the 2012 presidential general election just a year away, it's a good time to look at the national polling and talk about the state of play. ...

Gallup 10/27
Obama Job Approval Showing Modest Improvement
President Barack Obama's job approval rating has shown modest improvement in the past week. His latest rating, based on Oct. 24-26 Gallup Daily tracking, is 43%, and his approval has been at or above 42% in each of the last seven days. ...

New York Times 10/27
Facing Hardship, Jobless Still Say They Have Hope
The nation's lingering unemployment crisis has forced many people without work to dip into their savings, borrow from relatives and do without necessities including health insurance, and most people who receive unemployment benefits said that the money was not enough to meet their basic needs, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll of jobless Americans. ...

Ronald Brownstein 10/26
Eight Takeaways From Early-State Primary Polls
The TIME/CNN/ORC polls released Wednesday afternoon from the first four states on the 2012 Republican calendar paint a consistent picture of the Republican race. These polls show that the GOP race is being shaped by parallel but disparate movements. ...

Gallup 10/26
Record-Low 26% in U.S. Favor Handgun Ban
A record-low 26% of Americans favor a legal ban on the possession of handguns in the United States other than by police and other authorized people. ...

New York Times 10/26
New Poll Finds a Deep Distrust of Government
With Election Day just over a year away, a deep sense of economic anxiety and doubt about the future hangs over the nation, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, with Americans' distrust of government at its highest level ever. ...

Mark Mellman 10/26
Ignore the Iowa caucus polls
With the Iowa caucuses a little more than 10 weeks away, polls will proliferate, so I am officially sounding my quadrennial warning -- beware of caucus polling. ...

David Hill 10/26
Stick a fork in Obama -- he's done
On life support. Dead man walking. Down for the count. He's toast. Stick a fork in him; he's done. Pick your own metaphorical cliché as long as it acknowledges that this president is a goner. ...

The Colbert Report 10/25
'Corporations Are People' -- Frank Luntz's Focus Group
Frank Luntz talks about focus groups on The Colbert Report. [See also: Frank Luntz writes about focus groups in The Polling Report.]

ABC News 10/25
Flat Tax Outpaces 9-9-9, Notably Among Conservatives
A flat tax like the one proposed today by Republican presidential candidate Gov. Rick Perry engenders a split decision in public opinion -- if not the warmest reception, a better one than the public's broader disapproval of his rival Herman Cain's 9-9-9 plan. ...

Charlie Cook 10/25
2012 Narrative Still Being Written
... During the 2006, 2008, and 2010 cycles, the question was how many seats would the victorious party pick up, not which one the political tides would benefit most. But so far for 2012, the weather vanes are just spinning. ...

Pew 10/24
Public Divided Over Occupy Wall Street Movement
About four-in-ten Americans say they support the Occupy Wall Street movement (39%), while nearly as many (35%) say they oppose the movement launched last month in New York's financial district. ...

Gallup 10/24
Americans Would Swap Electoral College for Popular Vote
Nearly 11 years after the 2000 presidential election brought the idiosyncrasies of the United States' Electoral College into full view, 62% of Americans say they would amend the U.S. Constitution to replace that system for electing presidents with a popular vote system. ...

Gallup 10/21
Obama Job Approval Avg. Slides to New Low in 11th Qtr.
President Barack Obama's 11th quarter in office was the worst of his administration, based on his quarterly average job approval ratings. His 41% approval average is down six percentage points from his 10th quarter in office, and is nearly four points below his previous low of 45% during his seventh quarter. ...

National Journal 10/19
Occupy D.C.? Most Back Protests, Surtax
At a time when protests have erupted across the country over a growing inequality of wealth and Congress is considering measures to impose a surtax on those earning more than $1 million annually, the public seems to be in a populist mood -- one that's tempered by skepticism about Washington's ability to do anything about the grim economy. ...

Gallup 10/19
Americans Blame Gov't More Than Wall Street for Economy
Americans are more than twice as likely to blame the federal government in Washington (64%) for the economic problems facing the United States as they are the financial institutions on Wall Street (30%). ...

David Hill 10/19
The whys and wherefores of Cain
Herman Cain's improbable run-up to co-front-runner status in the presidential race might not last, but it's worth pondering its origins and meaning. ...

Mark S. Mellman 10/19
Romney still likely to win GOP nod
... As others rise and fall, Romney's numbers just don't budge. Commentators helpfully remind us that "slow and steady wins the race." But this isn't a track meet. ...

ABC News 10/18
Cain Matches Romney in Favorability
With the stage set for their latest debate, Herman Cain is challenging former Massachusetts' Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Gov. Rick Perry in overall popularity and leading both in strong sentiment among very conservative Americans -- a key Republican constituency that's backed away from Perry in the past month. ...

Pew 10/18
Top One-Word Reaction to Cain Is a Number: 9-9-9
When Americans are asked to describe Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain in a single word, they most frequently offer a series of numbers: "9-9-9." ...

Gallup 10/18
Most Uncertain About 'Occupy Wall Street' Goals
Less than half of Americans express an opinion about either the Occupy Wall Street movement's goals or the way it has conducted its protests. Those with an opinion are more likely to approve than disapprove. ...

The Onion 10/18
Man In Coma Enters GOP Race, Polling Ahead Of Romney
In a dramatic turn for the 2012 presidential race, comatose former congressman John Clarkson ... threw his hat into the ring for the Republican nomination today, and early polls show the immobile, bedridden candidate already ahead of his competition. ...

CNN 10/17
Two-thirds of Republicans say minds are not made up
One day before a CNN Western Republican presidential debate, a new national survey indicates that Mitt Romney and Herman Cain are essentially tied for the lead in the race for the GOP nomination, with Rick Perry dropping to a distant third. ...

Gallup 10/17
Record-High 50% Favor Legalizing Marijuana Use
A record-high 50% of Americans now say the use of marijuana should be made legal, up from 46% last year. ...

Gallup: Frank Newport 10/14
Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party
Could the Occupy Wall Street movement signify a return to enthusiasm on the other side of the spectrum from what we saw last year? ... Since being anti-business generally translates into being Democratic in terms of political orientation, it's possible we could see a return to more proportionate enthusiasm on the two ends of the political spectrum. ...

FTI Strategic Communications (pdf) 10/14
Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor
... The lesson Americans have taken from the economic downturn of the past several years and the recent budget battles in Washington is that debt is undesirable at all levels -- from their personal household budget to the federal government. ... And, the survey also shows an increase from our previous surveys in the belief that "government is not the solution to our economic problems; government is the problem." ...

Time 10/13
Obama Leads Head-to-Head Match-Ups with Rivals
Despite sweeping pessimism about the nation's fortunes and his own sliding approval ratings, President Obama leads potential Republican rivals Mitt Romney and Rick Perry in hypothetical general-election match-ups, according to a new TIME poll. ...

Washington Post: Scott Clement 10/13
Cain ahead in GOP race?
A new poll shows Cain outpacing Romney, but is his lead real? ...

Gallup 10/13
Support for Death Penalty Falls to 39-Year Low
Sixty-one percent of Americans approve of using the death penalty for persons convicted of murder, down from 64% last year. This is the lowest level of support since 1972, the year the Supreme Court voided all existing state death penalty laws in Furman v. Georgia. ...

NBC News 10/12
Cain now leads GOP pack
Fueled by Tea Party supporters, conservatives and high-interest GOP primary voters, former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain now leads the race for the Republican presidential nomination, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. ...

CBS News: Sarah Dutton 10/12
Polls show longtime support for tax hikes on rich
... Whether the goal is to reduce the federal budget deficit, provide health insurance for those without, or even for no specific reason, there is a history of support in public opinion polls for higher taxes for the most affluent Americans. ...

Gallup 10/12
At 13%, Congress' Approval Ties All-Time Low
The percentage of Americans who approve of the job Congress is doing returned to 13% in October, matching the all-time Gallup low on this measure, first recorded in December 2010 and repeated in August. ...

Reuters 10/12
Romney leads Republicans, Cain second
Mitt Romney leads the field vying for the Republican presidential nomination, but fewer than one in four of the party's voters back him as a surging Herman Cain gains ground, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. ...

NBC News 10/12
Despite defeat, Obama's jobs bill is popular
Even though the United States Senate on Tuesday blocked President Obama's jobs bill, the legislation's specifics -- as well as the idea of taxing the wealthy to pay for it -- are popular with the American public, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. ...

ABC News 10/12
Seven in 10 See Wall Street Negatively
Seven in 10 Americans have an unfavorable impression of the financial institutions on Wall Street, a point of resonance with the protesters camped out in Lower Manhattan and elsewhere. ...

Mark Mellman 10/12
Republicans should stick to traditions
... Since the rise of the modern nominating system, every successful presidential aspirant in both parties, save one (Bill Clinton), has won either Iowa or New Hampshire. ... If you don't win one of these two early contests, your chances of becoming your party's standard-bearer sink to near zero. ...

David Hill 10/12
Primary polls point to Romney
... My reading is that the early strong polling for Perry simply reflected a vote of confidence in his being the governor of one of the reddest red states, Texas. ... Then the debates allowed Republicans to "sample" the product, to use a marketing term, and many voters were profoundly disappointed. ...

Gallup 10/11
Cain's Rise, Perry's Decline in Positive Intensity Continue
The upward trend continues in Republicans' ratings of presidential candidate Herman Cain, as does the downward trend in their ratings of Rick Perry. ...

Washington Post 10/11
Middle-class pain necessary, but widely unpopular
More than eight in 10 Americans say the middle class will have to make financial sacrifices to reduce the nation’s budget deficit, but about as many oppose tax increases on middle-income families and broad-based entitlement cuts, according to a new Washington Post-Bloomberg News poll. ...

Gallup 10/10
Cain Surges, Nearly Ties Romney for Lead
Republicans' support for Herman Cain has surged to 18%, their support for Rick Perry has sagged to 15%, and their support for Mitt Romney remains relatively stable at 20%. ...

Bloomberg 10/10
Cain Even With Romney on Economy for GOP Supporters
Businessman Herman Cain is almost even with Mitt Romney in his appeal as an economic leader to Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. ...

Lindsay A. Owens, Stanford U. 10/7
40-year low in America's view of Wall Street
... Animosity toward Wall Street is at its highest level in at least 40 years. Americans have never exactly loved Wall Street stockbrokers or bankers -- but we certainly didn't always hate them. Why this increasing hostility? ...

WMUR 10/7
NH: Primary Poll Shows Romney With Strong Lead
A new poll shows that Mitt Romney continues to lead the race for the Republican presidential nomination in New Hampshire, and there is a new candidate in second place. ...

Gallup 10/7
Obama's Sept. Approval Rating Remains at Term-Low 41%
President Barack Obama's job approval rating averaged 41% in September, tied with August for the lowest monthly approval average of his administration. ...

Brendan Nyhan 10/6
Obama 2012: Not Exactly the Truman Show
Can President Obama overcome a weak economy and win in 2012 by campaigning against the Republican Congress? The historical evidence for this claim is weaker than his allies would like to admit. ...

Pew 10/6
Obama Motivates Supporters, Opponents in 2012 Matchups
Barack Obama is a leading driver of voter preferences in possible 2012 matchups, among both his supporters and opponents. ...

Pew 10/5
War and Sacrifice in the Post-9/11 Era
... Only about one half of one percent of the U.S. population has been on active military duty at any given time during the past decade of sustained warfare. Some 84% of post-9/11 veterans say the public does not understand the problems faced by those in the military or their families. ...

ABC News 10/5
Obama Gains vs. GOP on Jobs as Congress Hits a New Low
Barack Obama has jumped to a 15-point lead over the Republicans in Congress in trust to handle job creation, a sign the beleaguered president’s $450 billion jobs package has hit its mark in public opinion. ...New York Times 10/5
A.C. Nielsen Jr., Who Built Ratings Firm, Dies at 92
Arthur C. Nielsen Jr., who transformed the company his father founded in 1923 into an international leader in market research, helping to make its name synonymous with television ratings, died on Monday in Winnetka, Ill. ...

National Journal: Ronald Brownstein 10/4
Voters of Two Minds on Federal Regulation
A majority of voters worry that government regulation of business has gone too far and is hurting the economy, but most also remain reluctant to block several of the key rules that congressional Republicans want to reverse, according to the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll. ...

Gallup 10/4
Perry Plummets, Cain Surges in Positive Intensity
Rick Perry's image is suffering, with his Positive Intensity Score among Republicans familiar with him down to 15, and below 20 for the first time. Meanwhile, Herman Cain's score is now 30, the highest for any candidate this year. ...

Washington Post 10/4
Perry slips, Cain rises in bid for GOP nomination
After a quick rise in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has experienced an almost equally dramatic decline, losing about half of his support over the past month, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. ...

CBS News 10/4
7 in 10 say Obama has not helped economy
A new CBS News poll finds that nearly seven in 10 Americans believe President Obama has not made real progress in fixing the economy. ...

CBS News 10/4
Most want taxes on millionaires increased
Most Americans believe that taxes on millionaires should be increased in order to reduce the deficit, according to a new CBS News poll. ...

National Journal 10/3
Goeas Quits Bachmann campaign
In yet another sign of the Michele Bachmann meltdown, pollster Ed Goeas is leaving her presidential campaign after the October 18th GOP debate in Las Vegas. ...

The Daily Caller: Ginni Thomas 10/3
John McLaughlin, political savant
... The September 13 congressional special elections in New York and Nevada were a political earthquake striking the White House and the Democratic Party. ... Last week The Daily Caller's Ginni Thomas sat down with John McLaughlin, a respected political consultant who assisted both of these winning campaign teams. ...

Gallup 10/3
Supreme Court Approval Rating Dips to 46%
As the U.S. Supreme Court begins its 2011-2012 term, Americans' approval of the institution is now 46%, a drop of 5 percentage points in the last year and 15 points in the last two years. ...

ABC News 10/3
Majority Expects Obama to Lose Re-election
A majority of Americans expect Barack Obama to be a one-term president, an assessment on which, in past elections, the public more often has been right than wrong. ...

The New Yorker: Jane Mayer 10/3
North Carolina: State for Sale
... Civitas underwrites polls on issues of the day. ... "Civitas was clever," Bob Hall, the executive director of Democracy NC, the progressive watchdog group, says. "It takes campaign expenses -- like polling, message development, and voter-turnout analysis -- and makes them tax-deductible." (Pope, in response, said that the poll results are equally available to everyone.) ...

Boston Herald 10/3
Warren, Brown in dead heat
Democrat Elizabeth Warren's meteoric ascent in Massachusetts politics has landed her in a virtual dead heat with Republican U.S. Sen. Scott Brown. ...

Wall Street Journal: Jonah Lehrer 10/2
Attention, Shoppers: Go With Your Gut
... In recent years, many scientists have argued that our "emotional brain," that welter of gut instincts and feelings generated by the unconscious, might be better suited for the complexity of 21st-century shopping. ...

CBS News 10/2
60 Minutes/Vanity Fair Poll: October Edition
A great brand often starts with a name and 27 percent of Americans say the American brand name that makes them most proud belongs to automaker Henry Ford. ...

New York Times 9/30
Obama Charts a New Route to Re-election
With his support among blue-collar white voters far weaker than among white-collar independents, President Obama is charting an alternative course to re-election should he be unable to win Ohio and other industrial states traditionally essential to Democratic presidential victories. ...

Pew 9/29
Is the Nation Divided Into 'Haves' and 'Have-Nots'?
Despite an extended economic downturn, the public's impression of whether the nation is economically divided remains relatively stable. ...

Gallup 9/28
Satisfaction With U.S. Remains Near 32-Year Low
Americans' satisfaction with the way things are going in the United States remains at 11% in September as it was in August, the lowest readings on this measure since December 2008 -- and among the worst on record in a trend that dates to 1979. ...

David Hill 9/27
What Putin could teach Republicans
... America needs a strong new leader to remove a weak one. Will we give primacy to strength, or will we lapse into soft-headed longing for someone who makes us feel good about something that doesn't really matter? ...

Mark S. Mellman 9/27
Crisis of confidence is widespread
It's no secret that America is suffering a crisis of confidence. The breadth and depth of that crisis, however, is overwhelming. ...

NPR 9/27
Retirement: Reality Not As Rosy As Expectations
Americans pride themselves on being optimistic. But Robert Blendon, of the Harvard School of Public Health, says that may not be such a good thing when it comes to planning for retirement. For many Americans, it is proving harder than they imagined, according to a a new poll by NPR, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Harvard School of Public Health. ...

William A. Galston 9/27
Left Behind: How Democrats Are Losing the Political Center
... Even as the terms of the political debate in Washington, in the eyes of many Democrats, have moved steadily to the right, the electorate is increasingly likely to see itself as ideologically closer to the Republican Party than to Democrats. ...

AJC 9/26
Survey Reveals Declining Jewish Support for Obama
Disappointment with President Obama's handling of the economy and U.S.-Israel relations has caused a falloff in Jewish support for the administration, a just-completed national survey by AJC, a non-partisan advocacy organization, shows. ...

Stan Greenberg 9/26
The Illusive Indie
Who are independent voters anyway? ...

Pew 9/26
Obama Draws More Confidence than GOP on Deficit
As the nation prepares for another round of deficit reduction debates, the public's confidence in congressional leaders, particularly Republican leaders in Congress, has plummeted. ...

Kaiser (pdf) 9/23
Kaiser Health Tracking Poll
This month, the bipartisan Congressional "super committee" began negotiations on a deficit reduction package that is likely to include at least some proposed changes to the nation's major health programs, Medicare and Medicaid. Probably reflecting current levels of distrust in Congress documented in many polls, a majority of the public expresses little to no trust in the super committee to make the right recommendations. ...

Pew 9/22
Press Criticized, But Trusted More than Other Info Sources
Negative opinions about the performance of news organizations now equal or surpass all-time highs on nine of 12 core measures the Pew Research Center has been tracking since 1985. ...

Alan I. Abramowitz 9/22
NY's 9th District and Obama's Orthodox Jewish Problem
... But while President Obama may not have big problems with Jewish voters in general, he may very well have big problems with one group of Jewish voters -- the Orthodox -- and that may help to explain the results of last week’s special election in New York. ... Orthodox Jews were unhappy with the Democratic Party and its policies long before Barack Obama appeared on the political scene. ...

Democracy Corps 9/22
The Explosive Republican-Obama Battleground
... The mood of the country is deeply pessimistic and voter anger encompasses the Republicans as well, particularly the new House members. ...

Gallup 9/22
More Voters Considering Romney Than Obama, Perry
More registered voters say they would definitely vote for Mitt Romney or might consider doing so (62%) than say the same about his two main rivals in the 2012 presidential election, Democrat Barack Obama (54%) and Republican Rick Perry (53%). ...

Gallup: Frank Newport 9/21
Public Opinion Polls and Public Policy
... At a time when the public's confidence in the elected representatives themselves is at an all-time low, it seems that paying more attention to the distilled wisdom of the average people whom these representatives are elected to represent makes sense. ...

Washington Post 9/21
Obama's favorability drops among African Americans
New cracks have begun to show in President Obama's support amongst African Americans, who have been his strongest supporters. ...

ABC News 9/21
Obama's Favorability Slips, But Perry, Romney No Better
Barack Obama's basic popularity has slipped to its lowest of his presidency, but his top two Republican challengers are no better off: Rick Perry and Mitt Romney are far less known than Obama – and at least as divisive as he is among those who do have an opinion of them. ...

McClatchy 9/21
Obama expected to lose, still tops any Republican 1-on-1
... A new McClatchy-Marist poll finds that Obama looks increasingly vulnerable in next year's election, with a majority of voters believing he'll lose to any Republican, a solid plurality saying they'll definitely vote against him and most potential Republican challengers gaining on him. ...

Pew 9/20
Palestinian Statehood: Mixed Views, Low Visibility
Americans express mixed opinions about a possible independent Palestinian state, an issue that has so far drawn little attention from the press or the public. ...

McClatchy 9/20
As economy sputters, Obama's ratings continues to sink
President Barack Obama's job approval rating has plunged to a dismal 39%, the lowest of his presidency, as increasing numbers disapprove of his handling of the nation's ailing economy, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll. ...

National Journal 9/20
Voters Favor Balance in Cutting Deficit
As President Obama challenged congressional Republicans with his new deficit plan on Monday, voters are rejecting the idea of reducing the nation's debt through spending cuts alone -- but there is no clear-cut enthusiasm for any specific proposal offered by either political party and even less confidence in their ability to get things done. ...

Gallup 9/20
Americans Favor Jobs Proposals, Including Taxing Rich
Americans generally favor raising taxes on higher-income Americans and eliminating tax deductions for some corporations as ways of paying for President Obama's proposed jobs plan. ...

Suzanne Mettler 9/19
Our Hidden Government Benefits
... Americans often fail to recognize government's role in society, even if they have experienced it in their own lives. That is because so much of what government does today is largely invisible. ...

Gallup 9/19
Americans Say Fed Gov't Wastes Over Half of Every Dollar
Americans estimate that the federal government wastes 51 cents of every dollar it spends, a new high in a Gallup trend question first asked in 1979. ...

Resurgent Republic 9/18
Opportunities, Challenges For GOP Among Hispanic Voters
... Compared to 2008 President Obama is underperforming among Hispanic voters, particularly in Florida and New Mexico. ...

New York Times 9/18
Support for Obama Slips; Unease on 2012 Candidates
President Obama's support is eroding among elements of his base, and a yearlong effort to recapture the political center has failed to attract independent voters, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, leaving him vulnerable at a moment when pessimism over the country's direction is greater than at any other time since he took office. ...

Stanford University 9/18
'Green' views may help win major elections
A political candidate's electoral victory or defeat is influenced by his or her stance on climate change policy, according to new Stanford University studies of the most recent presidential and congressional elections. ...

Bloomberg 9/18
Hillary Clinton Popularity Prompts Some Buyer's Remorse
The most popular national political figure in America today is one who was rejected by her own party three years ago: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. ...

Gallup 9/18
Jewish Support for Obama Down, Not Disproportionately
There is little sign that President Obama is suffering disproportionately in support among Jews; 54% approved of his job performance from Aug. 1-Sept. 15, 13 percentage points higher than his overall 41% approval rating during that time, and similar to the average 14-point gap seen throughout Obama's term. ...

National Journal 9/13
With Doubts, Voters Prefer Obama Jobs Plan
Despite deepening doubts about President Obama's economic agenda, Americans generally prefer the proposals he offered last week for reviving the economy to the competing ideas advanced by congressional Republicans and the GOP's 2012 presidential field, a United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll has found. ...

Nicole McCleskey 9/12
Hispanic Voters: Opportunity for GOP as Obama Falters?
With much speculation about Hispanics and the 2012 election, we thought it worth taking a look. Anecdotally you hear whispers (some louder than others) about President Obama's erosion in the Hispanic community, that Hispanics are turning against him headed into 2012. But is it true? ...

Gallup 9/12
Congressional Job Approval at 15%
Congressional job approval is now 15%, up slightly from the record-tying low of 13% recorded in August, while disapproval is 82%, compared with 84% last month. ...

Dan Balz 9/10
What the tea party is -- and isn't
.. According to Alan Abramowitz of Emory University, "The tea party movement can best be understood in the context of the long-term growth of partisan-ideological polarization within the American electorate and especially the growing conservatism of the activist base in the Republican Party." ...

John Sides 9/9
What Can Presidential Speeches Do? A Dialogue
Q: So, Obama's jobs speech was a barnburner. Surely this will pull Obama's approval ratings out of the doldrums, no? A: Presidential speeches don't really move the president's job approval ratings. ...

GOOD 9/9
The Information Arms Race
... Gage has found that "anger points," issues that provoke the most ire, are the most effective way to boost turnout. So his surveys are designed to find which issues -- taxes, abortion, guns -- fit each profile in order to get the most persuasive message to the right voter. ...

ABC News 9/9
A Sense of Security Rebounds
Confidence in the country's safety from terrorism has rebounded sharply in the past year to near its highs, with most Americans expressing satisfaction with the steps the country's taken in response to 9/11. But there are two major exceptions: The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. ...

New York Times 9/9
Feeling Safer, but Still Wary
Ten years after Sept. 11, Americans are still walking an emotional tightrope, with increased comfort in the government's antiterrorism efforts but a significant number wary that such a catastrophe could happen again. ...

World Public Opinion 9/8
U.S. Response to 9/11 Weakened Its Economy
Six in ten Americans believe that that the U.S. weakened its economy by overspending in its responses to the 9/11 attacks. In particular, respondents felt this was especially true of the U.S. mission in Iraq. ...

Larry J. Sabato 9/8
It's Already About Electoral College Math
Straw polls, real polls, debates, caucuses and primaries -- these comprise the public side of presidential campaigns 14 months before Election Day. But behind the scenes, strategists for President Obama and his major Republican opponents are already focused like a laser on the Electoral College. ...

Yale U. / George Mason U. (pdf) 9/7
Politics & Global Warming
... Majorities of Democrats (78%), Independents (71%) and Republicans (53%) believe that global warming is happening. By contrast, only 34% of Tea Party members believe global warming is happening, while 53% say it is not happening. ...

Glen Bolger 9/7
White Voters Can Jump
... The President's problems with white voters will impact other Democrats. In campaigns where the percentage of white votes hits 75% or more, do not be surprised if Democratic candidates are more reluctant to strongly campaign with Obama. And that's going to be a lot of key places. ...

Resurgent Republic 9/7
President In Deep Trouble As He Delivers Jobs Speech
By almost every measure, President Obama's prospects for reelection are bad. Most Americans: Think the country is on the wrong track (67 percent); Believe Obama has turned out to be a weaker leader than they expected (60 percent); Think his policies have made things worse for most Americans (50 percent) ...

Pew 9/7
From Hyperpower to Declining Power
In the decade since the Sept. 11 attacks, America's global image has followed a remarkable, if now familiar, trajectory. Initially, there was a global outpouring of sympathy for the United States, but it was short-lived. ...

Gallup 9/7
Obama Approval At New Lows Among Whites, Hispanics
President Barack Obama earned the lowest monthly job approval rating of his presidency to date in August. ... He also received term-low monthly job approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%). ...

Public Religion Research Institute 9/6
Attitudes in an Increasingly Diverse America
Ten years after the September 11th terrorist attacks, Americans believe they are more safe but have less personal freedom and that the country is less respected in the world than it was prior to September 11, 2001. ...

Andrew Gelman (pdf) 9/6
Economic Divisions and Political Polarization
Americans are worried about polarization, but we can't always agree on what exactly we're polarized about. You might say that we're polarized about polarization. ...

AP 9/6
OK to trade some freedoms to fight terrorism
... The same Americans who are increasingly splashing their personal lives across Facebook and Twitter trace a meandering path when asked where the government should draw the line between protecting civil liberties and pursuing terrorism. ...

Washington Post 9/6
Obama ratings sink to new lows as hope fades
Public pessimism about the direction of the country has jumped to its highest level in nearly three years, erasing the sense of hope that followed President Obama's inauguration and pushing his approval ratings to a record low, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. ...

Gallup 9/5
More U.S. Workers Unhappy With Benefits, Promotions
U.S. workers are more dissatisfied today with their health insurance benefits and their chances for promotion than they were before the global economic collapse. These are the biggest movers since August 2008 on a list of 13 specific job aspects Gallup tracks. ...

Gallup 9/2
Americans' Fear of Terrorism in U.S. Is Near Low Point
Americans' fear that a terrorist attack in the U.S. could be imminent has retreated from the high level Gallup recorded shortly after al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed at his hiding place in Pakistan on May 1. It is now on the low end of the range seen over the past decade. ...

Cliff Young and Chris Jackson 9/1
Obama at the electoral tipping point
... Taken as a whole, Obama is still a favorite. That being said, he is dangerously close to the tipping point between a clear favorite and a struggling contender. ...

Pew 9/1
United in Remembrance, Divided over Policies
... the public continues to be divided over many of the anti-terrorism policies that arose in the wake of Sept. 11, and these differences extend to opinions about whether U.S. wrongdoing prior to 9/11 may have motivated the attacks: 43% say yes, while 45% disagree. ...

Thomas F. Schaller 9/1
One Year From Convention, What Does Obama Say?
... the calm, cerebral President Obama may need to give way to a more combative, visceral Candidate Obama next year. Indeed, the 2012 presidential race is setting up to be a classic test case of the endangered incumbent. ...

AP 9/1
Japanese distrust leaders after disasters
Five months after the tsunami and nuclear accident, the Japanese people lack confidence in the government's ability to handle another major disaster and generally distrust elected leaders, an Associated Press-GfK poll has found. ...

Bill McInturff (pdf) 8/31
The Debt Ceiling Negotiation and its Consequences
... The debt ceiling negotiation is an extremely significant event that is profoundly and sharply reshaping views of the economy and the federal government. It has led to a scary erosion in confidence in both. ...

Nate Silver 8/31
Despite Keys, Obama is No Lock
The American University political scientist Allan J. Lichtman has issued a prediction that, in the context of an economy that is still teetering on the brink of recession and Barack Obama's 40 percent approval ratings, looks awfully bold. ...

Chris Wilson 8/31
Is Obama more like Harry Truman or Gerald Ford?
Gallup's latest data paints a potentially dire picture for Barak [sic] Obama, but not one so dire that it prevents Democrats from whistling past the graveyard. ...

AP 8/31
AP, NORC partner for in-depth research, journalism
The Associated Press and NORC at the University of Chicago announced a new research partnership Wednesday, joining to create the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. ...

Gallup 8/31
Approval of Labor Unions Holds Near Its Low, at 52%
In a year marked by contentious negotiations between state governments and public employee unions, a slim majority of Americans, 52%, approve of labor unions. ...

usnews.com 8/30
Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012
Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan's 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag. ...

Pew 8/30
Muslim Americans: No Signs of Growth in Alienation
As the 1oth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks approaches, a comprehensive public opinion survey finds no indication of increased alienation or anger among Muslim Americans in response to concerns about home-grown Islamic terrorists, controversies about the building of mosques and other pressures that have been brought to bear on this high-profile minority group in recent years. ...

Gallup 8/30
Obama Weekly Average Approval Holds at Term-Low 40%
President Barack Obama's job approval rating averaged 40% last week, tying his record-low 40% ratings for the two prior weeks that started on Aug. 8. ...

Kaiser Family Foundation 8/29
Uninsured But Not Yet Informed
If there is one thing there is general agreement on when it comes to the Affordable Care Act it's that it will help the uninsured. ... Therefore, it was a real surprise in our latest tracking poll to learn that most of the uninsured don't know how much the law will benefit them. ...

Gallup 8/29
Computer Industry Rated Best, Federal Gov't Worst
Americans view the computer industry the most positively and the federal government the least positively when asked to rate 25 business and industry sectors.  ...

Gallup 8/26
Tea Party Supporters Backing Perry for GOP Nomination
Rick Perry's candidacy has attracted strong initial support from Republicans who identify themselves as supporters of the Tea Party movement. ...

Alan I. Abramowitz 8/25
The Electoral College: Democrats' Friend?
... But while it's too soon to predict the outcome of next year's election, there are some things that we can predict about that election with a fairly high degree of confidence based on the results of recent presidential elections and long-term trends in American politics. ...

Pew 8/25
Obama Image Takes a Hit, GOP Ratings Decline
The public is profoundly discontented with conditions in the country, its government, political leadership and several of its major institutions. ...

Women's Voices, Women Vote/Democracy Corps (pdf) 8/24
Creating a New Economic Narrative
... Those in Congress who are concerned about the middle class and those most damaged by the current economic crisis have yet to make the case strongly enough that they can solve the economic problems facing Americans, particularly to unmarried and young voters. ...

Gallup 8/24
One-Third See Improved Race Relations Under Obama
By 35% to 23%, more Americans believe U.S. race relations have gotten better rather than worse with Barack Obama's election as president. ...

Gallup 8/23
Perry Rises in Recognition and Maintains Positive Image
Texas Gov. Rick Perry is now recognized by 67% of Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide, an increase of 13 percentage points from two weeks ago. Still, six of the other nine candidates or potential candidates are better known than Perry, led by Sarah Palin (97%) and Rudy Giuliani (91%). ...

Washington Post 8/22
Legacy of MLK's 'I Have a Dream' speech unfulfilled
Barely more than a third of African Americans see the United States as having realized the vision outlined in Martin Luther King Jr.'s famous "I Have a Dream" speech -- down from nearly two-thirds just before President Obama's inauguration in 2009. ...

Gallup 8/19
Americans Much More Positive About Local Schools
Americans, and parents in particular, evaluate their community schools more positively than in any year since Phi Delta Kappa International and Gallup started asking Americans to grade local schools in 1984. ...

Ronald Brownstein 8/19
Will Perry, Bachmann Divide Voters Resistant to Romney?
... The Republican coalition now divides virtually evenly between the economically-focused managers and the culturally-conservative, viscerally anti-Washington populists. ...

Larry J. Sabato 8/18
The Dirty Thirties
President Obama has found himself in the cellar for the first time since taking office: He fell to 39% in Gallup Poll tracking over the past weekend. ... But if there's any comfort for Obama, it is that every president since Lyndon Johnson has become familiar with the "dirty thirties" at some point in his tenure. ...

Pew 8/18
Women See Value and Benefits of College; Men Lag
At a time when women surpass men by record numbers in college enrollment and completion, they also have a more positive view than men about the value higher education provides, according to a nationwide Pew Research Center survey. ...

Education Week 8/17
Americans Trust Teachers, Split on Teachers' Unions
Governors and teachers' unions are going head-to-head in several states across the country, and the public feels caught in the middle, a new survey on the public's perception of U.S. schools finds. ...

David E. Campbell and Robert D. Putnam 8/17
Crashing the Tea Party
Given how much sway the Tea Party has among Republicans in Congress and those seeking the Republican presidential nomination, one might think the Tea Party is redefining mainstream American politics. But in fact the Tea Party is increasingly swimming against the tide of public opinion: among most Americans, even before the furor over the debt limit, its brand was becoming toxic. ...

New York Times 8/16
NYC: Bloomberg's Approval Rating the Lowest in 6 Years
Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg's job approval rating among New Yorkers has hit its lowest point in six years, with residents conveying widespread anxieties about the city's economic prospects, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. ...

Gallup 8/16
Perry, Bachmann: More Positive Intensity Than Romney
Newly announced presidential candidate Rick Perry and Iowa Straw Poll winner Michele Bachmann generate more intensely positive reactions from Republicans who know them than does front-runner Mitt Romney. ...

Gallup 8/16
Congressional Job Approval Ties Historic Low of 13%
Americans' evaluation of the job Congress is doing is the worst Gallup has ever measured, with 13% approving, tying the all-time low measured in December 2010. ...

Latino Decisions 8/15
Latino voters support tax increases alongside cuts
... When asked which approach they prefer to reduce the deficit, 46% of Latino registered voters stated raising taxes on the wealthy, compared to only 7% who said cutting existing programs, and 37% who said a combination of both tax increases and cuts. ...

Gallup 8/15
Obama's Weekly Job Approval at Lowest of Administration
President Obama's job approval rating dropped to 40% during the week spanning Aug. 8-14, the lowest weekly average of his administration. ...

Democracy Corps (pdf) 8/15
Voters downgrade Washington
A new survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps reveals voters' growing anger with Washington. ...

Alan Reifman 8/19
Health Care Polls
... Now, I'm not saying the health care reform policy (either when it was working its way through the Congress or as an actually enacted law) has ever been wildly popular. However, "very unpopular" doesn't strike me as an accurate characterization, either. ...

Gallup 8/12
Economic Confidence Drops, Obama Approval Fairly Stable
President Obama's job approval rating for the first 10 days of August is 4 percentage points lower than it was in the first week of July, significantly less of a drop than the 19-point decline in Gallup's Economic Confidence Index over the same period. ...

National Journal 8/11
Obama's Path to Reelection Narrows
Newly released state-by-state approval numbers for President Obama suggest that in 2012 he could face fewer options for assembling an Electoral College majority and increased pressure to capture racially diverse states. ...

Washington Post 8/11
Spreading gloom about government
In the aftermath of the tumultuous debate over raising the debt ceiling, Americans give Washington a strong vote of no confidence, with barely a quarter of those surveyed recently saying the federal government can fix the nation's economic problems and a large majority agreeing that the policymaking process is unstable and ineffective. ...

Gallup 8/10
Tea Party Sparks More Antipathy Than Passion
More Americans consider themselves strong opponents of the Tea Party movement than strong supporters, by 20% to 14%, and the ratio is a similar 22% to 15% among registered voters. ...

Reuters 8/10
Most Americans say U.S. on wrong track
Economic fears are weighing heavily on Americans, with a large majority saying the United States is on the wrong track and nearly half believing the worst is yet to come, a Reuters/Ipsos poll said on Wednesday. ...

Mark Mellman 8/10
Burned on a teacup
... "Tea Party" is becoming a dirty word. ... Republicans running for every office from president to dog catcher are forced to pledge fealty to a group that is increasingly scorned by the American people. ...

Gallup 8/10
Americans Want Debt Supercommittee to Compromise
Six in 10 Americans say members of the new bipartisan "supercommittee" mandated to find new ways of reducing the federal budget deficit should compromise, even if the agreement reached is one they personally disagree with. ...

Gallup 8/9
Record-Low 21% Say Most in Congress Deserve Reelection
About one in five U.S. registered voters (21%) say most members of Congress deserve reelection, the lowest percentage Gallup has found in the 20-year history of asking this question. ...

Pew 8/9
Views of Tea Party Supporters in Congress More Negative
More Americans now think that members of Congress who support the Tea Party are having a negative effect than said that in January, at the start of the new Congress. ...

USA Today 8/8
Will anti-Congress mood cause another 'wave' election?
A USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds signs that another "wave" election with the potential to dramatically change the capital's political makeup may be building. ...

Gallup 8/8
Plenty of Common Ground Found in Abortion Debate
Self-described "pro-choice" and "pro-life" Americans agree about nine major areas of abortion policy, while disagreeing on eight others. ...

New York Times 8/6
Obama Team Turns Its Focus to Tough Re-election Fight
... Despite an intensive effort by the White House since last November to recapture the political center, Mr. Obama continues to struggle to win back the support of moderate and independent voters, polls show. ...

Washington Post 8/6
Will Obama be reelected? Economy could hold the answer
... Campaigning in last year's midterm elections, Obama argued over and over again that Republicans had driven the economy into a ditch; from now going forward, the question will be why he hasn't towed it out. ...

Ron Brownstein 8/4
Towering Wave of Alienation Threatens Both GOP, Dems
In the shadow of the bitterly fought agreement to raise the federal debt ceiling, the independent voters who usually hold the balance of power in American politics are expressing astronomical levels of discontent with President Obama, Congress, and the Washington system itself. ...

CBS News 8/4
Americans divided on debt limit deal
Americans are divided on Congress' last-minute deal to raise the debt ceiling, a new CBS News/New York Times poll shows. ...

New York Times 8/4
Disapproval of Congress at Historic Level
The debate over raising the debt ceiling, which brought the nation to the brink of default, has sent disapproval of Congress to its highest level on record and left most Americans saying that creating jobs should now take priority over cutting spending, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. ...

Gallup 8/4
Tea Party Supporters Oppose Debt Agreement
Tea Party supporters overwhelmingly disapprove of the agreement reached by President Obama and Congress to raise the federal debt ceiling, by a 68% to 22% margin. ...

CNN 8/4
Huntsman chief outlines strategy in memo to donors
In a confidential pair of memos circulated to donors this week, Jon Huntsman's campaign manager and pollster mapped out a nomination strategy that relies heavily on raising the former Utah governor's profile among primary voters and drawing contrasts with his "very weak" field of Republican opponents. ...

National Journal 8/3
Public Doubts Washington Can Get Things Done
Now that the debt crisis has been resolved -- at least for a while -- how is Congress doing in the eyes of the American people? What does survey research suggest about the public's mood heading into the fall when lawmakers will once again have to vote on massive spending cuts? ...

Los Angeles Times 8/3
Nine missing pollsters freed in western Mexico
All nine polling workers who had vanished while taking surveys in a violent slice of western Mexico have been freed, their employers and Mexican authorities said Wednesday morning. ...

Gallup 8/3
More Oppose Than Favor Debt Ceiling Agreement
Americans are more likely to oppose (46%) than favor (39%) the agreement President Obama and Congress reached to raise the federal debt ceiling. Majorities of Democrats and liberals favor the agreement, while conservatives and Republicans largely oppose it. ...

National Journal 8/2
Amidst Debt Fight, Discontent With Congress
Amidst a tumultuous fight over raising the debt ceiling, Americans are deeply dissatisfied with Washington and eager to elect fresh faces to Congress, raising warning flags for Democrats and Republicans alike. ...

Pew 8/1
Public Sees Budget Negotiations as 'Ridiculous,' 'Stupid'
From liberal Democrats to Tea Party Republicans, there is broad public consensus that the budget negotiations of recent weeks can be summed up in words such as ridiculous, disgusting, stupid, and frustrating. ...

Gallup 8/1
U.S. Political Ideology Stable With Conservatives Leading
Americans' political ideology at the midyear point of 2011 looks similar to 2009 and 2010, with 41% self-identifying as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 21% as liberal. ...

Stanley Greenberg 7/30
Why Voters Tune Out Democrats
... In analyzing these polls in the United States, I see clearly that voters feel ever more estranged from government -- and that they associate Democrats with government. If Democrats are going to be encumbered by that link, they need to change voters' feelings about government. ...

Gallup 7/29
Obama Approval Drops to New Low of 40%
President Obama's job approval rating is at a new low, averaging 40% in July 26-28 Gallup Daily tracking. His prior low rating of 41% occurred several times, the last of which was in April. As recently as June 7, Obama had 50% job approval. ...

Gallup 7/28
Obama Rates Higher Than Boehner, Reid on Debt Situation
Americans are more likely to approve of the way President Obama is handling the negotiations to raise the federal debt ceiling than they are to approve of the handling of the situation by Speaker of the House John Boehner or Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, although opinions about all three are more negative than positive. ...

Pew 7/28
Obama Loses Ground in 2012 Reelection Bid
The sizeable lead Barack Obama held over a generic Republican opponent in polls conducted earlier this year has vanished as his support among independent voters has fallen off. ...

Kaiser Family Foundation 7/28
Americans Gloomy On Some Promises In Health Law
Americans are pessimistic that the new health care law will improve the quality of medicine, do a better job protecting consumers or lower costs, a new poll shows. ...

PPIC 7/28
CA: Support Drops for Nuclear Plants, Rises for Drilling
In the wake of the Japanese nuclear crisis, support for building more nuclear power plants in California has dropped sharply in a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California. ...

Lawrence R. Jacobs 7/27
Who's winning the debt debate?
News reporting is fixated on the D.C. beltway scheming, beaming pictures of government officials zipping in and out of meetings with occasional public comment. Meanwhile, the public is already reaching a verdict, and it is a harsh one -- the Republican Party is out of step with the country's fiscal priorities. ...

Freedom to Marry 7/27
Momentum for the Freedom to Marry
Today at the National Press Club, two leading pollsters, one Republican and one Democratic, released a new analysis of polling data spanning more than a decade regarding the dramatic shift in public attitudes on the freedom to marry for same-sex couples. ...
See also: Marriage polls

Gallup 7/27
Romney Leads Field of Announced GOP Candidates
Mitt Romney is the leader for the GOP nomination among the current field of official candidates, supported by 27% of Republicans, compared with 18% for Michele Bachmann. However, Rick Perry would essentially tie Romney, with Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani close behind, in a scenario in which all three of these undecided candidates entered the race. ...

National Journal 7/26
Voters Fear Debt Deal Will Hurt Medicare
Americans expressed more trust in President Obama than in congressional Republicans to make decisions about both the federal deficit and debt ceiling, but continued to display little urgency about the risk of default if the two sides remain stalemated, a new United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll found. ...
Check here for future Congressional Connection Poll releases: Congressional Connection Poll

Reuters 7/26
Americans back mixed solution for debt crisis
Americans overwhelmingly are concerned about the U.S. debt crisis and a majority backs the type of compromise pushed by President Barack Obama, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found on Tuesday. ...

Human Rights Campaign / GQRR (pdf) 7/26
A Giant Step Forward on the Road to Equality
A recent national survey of 900 adults shows a nation moving inexorably toward equality for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people. ...

Pew 7/26
Public Wants Debt Ceiling Compromise
The public overwhelmingly favors a compromise in the debt ceiling standoff. And even as negotiations aimed at resolving the issue show little progress, a majority thinks that Barack Obama and congressional Republicans will reach a deal before the Aug. 2 deadline on a possible government default. ...

Washington Post 7/26
More Americans unhappy with Obama on economy, jobs
More than a third of Americans now believe that President Obama's policies are hurting the economy, and confidence in his ability to create jobs is sharply eroding among his base, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. ...

Religion News Service 7/25
Americans want religious presidents, vague on details
Americans want their presidents to be religious, but many have trouble identifying the faiths of President Obama and leading GOP contenders Mitt Romney and Rep. Michele Bachmann, according to a new poll released Monday. ...

Gallup 7/25
Common State Abortion Restrictions Spark Mixed Reviews
Large majorities of Americans favor the broad intent of several types of abortion restriction laws that are now common in many states, but have mixed or negative reactions to others. ...

Pew 7/22
GOP Makes Big Gains among White Voters
As the country enters into the 2012 presidential election cycle, the electorate's partisan affiliations have shifted significantly since Barack Obama won office nearly three years ago. ...

Los Angeles Times 7/22
California voters see some bright spots in grim budget
The budget approved by Gov. Jerry Brown and lawmakers last month was largely distasteful to voters, a new poll shows, but many felt the process went more smoothly than in past years, when political paralysis gripped the Capitol and left the state starved for cash. ...

Charlie Cook 7/21
Too Close to Call
It's interesting that the race for the Republican presidential nomination is as fluid as it is, given that no primaries or caucuses have been held and that the first important straw poll, in Ames, Iowa, is still three weeks away. ...

Pew 7/21
Muslim-Western Tensions Persist
Muslim and Western publics continue to see relations between them as generally bad, with both sides holding negative stereotypes of the other. ...

Washington Post 7/21
Romney still ahead, but with big vulnerabilities
Mitt Romney leads the wide-open contest for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. But a new Washington Post-ABC News poll underscores his vulnerabilities as a front-runner, as well as Sarah Palin's lingering power to shake up the race if she decides to run. ...

Gallup 7/21
Obama Maintains Sub-50% Job Approval in 10th Quarter
... Obama is in the company of several former elected presidents who averaged sub-50% approval during their 10th quarters in office. This includes three former presidents who won re-election -- Bill Clinton, Richard Nixon, and Ronald Reagan -- and one, Jimmy Carter, who lost. ...

Remapping Debate 7/20
Financial Times, Lazard resist disclosure on poll facts
According to a recent Financial Times report on the extent of public support for green energy development based on a poll sponsored by Lazard, a major international financial advisory and asset management firm, U.S. voters cap their willingness to pay for renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, at $10 per month. ... But can the poll results be trusted? ...

Mark Mellman 7/20
Debt-limit debate views
Don't let anyone tell you a big, widely covered public debate on a topic of vital importance can't shift public opinion. Though a relatively paltry 29 percent are following the discussion closely, attitudes on the debt ceiling are shifting. Dramatically. ...

David Hill 7/20
Time to go for broke on debt
... I'm making a political judgment and believe there might be, in fact, good reasons to risk the alleged political chaos that some say will ensue from a failure to raise the ceiling. ...

NBC News 7/19
Americans want compromise on debt
As Democrats and Republicans wrestle over spending and deficits in advance of an Aug. 2 deadline to raise the debt ceiling, most Americans want their political leaders to compromise rather stand their ground, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. ...

Washington Post 7/19
Public sees dire consequences if no budget deal
With President Obama and congressional Republicans at an impasse in budget negotiations, majorities of Americans see both sides as not being willing enough to compromise to get a deal done, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News Poll. ...

ABC News 7/19
Obama's Advantage on Aiding the Middle Class
Most Americans think the Republicans in Congress have got Wall Street and large corporations' backs, while President Obama prevails on protecting the middle class and small businesses: an edge that helps explain his better-than-dismal job approval in the teeth of a terrible economy. ...

Gallup 7/18
Americans, Including Republicans, Want Debt Compromise
Two-thirds of Americans would like government officials to agree to a compromise plan on the debt and budget deficit negotiations now underway. Fewer than 3 in 10 want lawmakers who share their views on the debt and budget deficit to hold out for their desired plan. ...

CBS News 7/18
Support for debt ceiling increase doubles
Americans are now roughly split on raising the debt ceiling, a new CBS News poll shows, with support for an increase nearly doubling since last month. ...

USA Today 7/18
Low ratings for Obama, Congress on debt talks
... Half of those surveyed in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll say President Obama and the current Congress are doing a worse job than their predecessors in dealing with the nation's problems, and four in 10 call the situation the worst they've seen in their lifetimes. ...

Pew 7/18
Obama Draws More Confidence on Debt Ceiling
The public expresses far more confidence in President Obama than it does in congressional leaders of both parties when it comes to the debate over the debt ceiling. ...

CBS News 7/18
71% shun GOP handling of debt crisis
Americans are unimpressed with their political leaders' handling of the debt ceiling crisis, with a new CBS News poll showing a majority disapprove of all the involved parties' conduct, but Republicans in Congress fare the worst, with just 21 percent backing their resistance to raising taxes. ...

PolitiFact 7/15
Truth-O-Meter (1)
Barack Obama said 80 percent of Americans favor both spending cuts and tax increases to address budget problems. ...

PolitiFact 7/15
Truth-O-Meter (2)
Barack Obama said a "clear majority" of Republican voters think tax revenues should be included as part of a budget deal. ...

Gallup 7/15
Majority of Republicans Can't Name a 2012 Favorite
More than half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 58%, do not express a preference when asked in an open-ended format -- with no candidates' names read -- whom they are most likely to support for the party's 2012 presidential nomination. ...

Pew 7/14
China Seen Overtaking U.S. as Global Superpower
In most regions of the world, opinion of the United States continues to be more favorable than it was in the Bush years, but U.S. image now faces a new challenge: doubts about America's superpower status. ...

Gallup 7/13
Americans Prefer Spending Cuts; Open to Tax Hikes
Americans' preferences for deficit reduction clearly favor spending cuts to tax increases, but most Americans favor a mix of the two approaches. Twenty percent favor an approach that relies only on spending cuts and 4% favor an approach that uses tax increases alone. ...

TheIowaRepublican.com 7/12
Iowa: Look Out for Chris Christie
... TheIowaRepublican.com poll shows that Bachmann is head and shoulders above the current crop of candidates campaigning in Iowa, but that could change if a high-profile candidate enters the race and competes in Iowa. ...

Pew 7/11
Public Now Divided on Debt Limit Debate
As the debate over the nation's debt and deficit continues, the public has grown more concerned that failing to raise the debt limit would force the government into default and hurt the economy. Despite this change, however, about as many Americans are concerned by the consequences of raising the nation's debt limit as by the fallout from not doing so. ...

TheIowaRepublican.com 7/11
Iowa: Bachmann Overtakes Romney
Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has surpassed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in a recent Iowa poll that was conducted by TheIowaRepublican.com. ...

Gallup 7/8
Cain, Huntsman, Bachmann, Pawlenty Gain in Recognition
Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty have gained the most in name recognition so far this year of any of the Republican presidential candidates Gallup tracks. ...

Alan I. Abramowitz 7/7
Correcting Myths About Independent Voters
There they go again. The presidential campaign season is barely under way but already pundits and pollsters are making misleading claims about independent voters and the role they play in presidential elections. ...

Pew 7/7
Public Wants Changes in Entitlements, Not Benefits
As policymakers at the state and national level struggle with rising entitlement costs, overwhelming numbers of Americans agree that, over the years, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid have been good for the country. ...

Gallup 7/6
Obama Averages 46% Approval in June
President Barack Obama's job approval rating averaged 46% in June, down from 50% in May but similar to his ratings from February through April. ...

Washington Post 7/5
Tea party Democrats do exist
Is there such a thing as a tea party Democrat? The answer, it seems, is yes. Polls show the group exists, but determining its actual impact is difficult. ...

Gallup 7/5
Solid Majority of Jewish Americans Still Approve of Obama
Jewish Americans gave President Barack Obama a 60% job approval rating in June, down from 68% in May, but statistically unchanged from 64% in April. ...

Des Moines Register 7/3
Iowa Poll: Likely GOP caucusgoers are educated, religious
Likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers are a highly educated bunch who are not wildly out of step with the rest of America in their religious profile. That's the stereotype-bucking picture that emerges of those who will get the nation’s first crack at narrowing the Republican presidential field early next year, based on demographic statistics gleaned from a Des Moines Register Iowa Poll taken June 19 to 22 and four Iowa Polls from the 2008 caucus cycle. ...

Ron Brownstein 7/1
The Racial Fault Line
... Huge gaps still routinely separate the preferences of whites and minorities, not only in voting behavior but also in basic attitudes about the role of government. The most recent Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor survey shows, moreover, that the two demographic groups diverge in their perspectives on an equally fundamental issue: whether the nation’s rapidly growing minority population has too much, too little, or the right amount of influence in the political system. ...

Kaiser Family Foundation (pdf) 6/30
Kaiser Health Tracking Poll
The debate over how best to deal with the federal budget deficit continues in Washington, and discussions of Medicare's financial future have been closely tied to this debate. This month's Kaiser Health Tracking Poll takes a look at the views of seniors and the public as they relate to these discussions. ...

CBS News 6/30
Many say economy is in permanent decline
In a sign of increasing pessimism about the direction of the U.S. economy, roughly four in ten Americans now believes it is in permanent decline, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll. ...

CBS News 6/30
Most think government should help homeowners in trouble
Most Americans think home ownership is an important part of the American dream, a new CBS News/ New York Times poll shows - so much so, that most also say the government should help homeowners in trouble with mortgage payments as a means of improving the market. ...

Pew 6/29
Government Still Faulted for Troop Support
As President Obama begins to draw down U.S. forces in Afghanistan, most Americans continue to say that government support for troops returning from war is falling short. ...

Gallup 6/29
Obama's Afghanistan Pullout Plan Broadly Favored
Americans broadly support President Barack Obama's plan to begin withdrawing U.S. forces in Afghanistan this year, with additional troops scheduled to leave by the end of next summer and the remainder by 2014. Nearly three-quarters, 72%, are in favor, while 23% are opposed. ...

Gallup 6/28
Bachmann in Strong Position as She Enters 2012 Race
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who formally announced her presidential candidacy Monday in her hometown of Waterloo, Iowa, enters the race with 69% name recognition among Republicans and ties for the highest Positive Intensity Score of any GOP candidate Gallup tracks. ...

McClatchy 6/28
Voters give Obama lowest rating yet on economy
President Barack Obama is in a fragile position as the 2012 campaign begins: Only 37 percent of registered voters approve of his handling of the economy, his lowest rating ever, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll. ...

CBS News: Brian Montopoli 6/28
Alienated nation: Americans complain of gov't disconnect
Americans see their leaders in Washington as overpaid agents of wealthy individuals and corporations who are largely disconnected from the concerns of average Americans. ...

Des Moines Register 6/27
Iowa Poll: Civil unions are minefield for GOP candidates
Iowa Republicans' long reputation for being hostile to political candidates who oppose ethanol subsidies isn't true today, if it ever was. But the shoe fits when it comes to the conventional wisdom that candidates in the nation's leadoff caucuses could have trouble if they support civil unions for gay and lesbian couples, a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows. ...

Sun-Times 6/26
Cell phones throw off poll takers
How do you accurately poll voters in an age when increasing numbers of them own only a cell phone? "I worry about this more than anything else -- you can have a California number and still be living in Iowa," said Ann Selzer, the only pollster to predict Barack Obama would win the Iowa Caucuses by 7 percentage points. ...

Des Moines Register 6/25
Iowa Poll: Romney, Bachmann in lead; Cain third
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann sit atop the standings in the year's first Des Moines Register Iowa Poll on the Republican presidential field. ...

Gallup 6/24
Shift to More Negative View of Libya Military Action
Americans are more likely to say they disapprove than approve of the U.S. military action in Libya. That represents a shift from three months ago, just after the mission began, when approval exceeded disapproval. ...

CBS News: Sarah Dutton 6/23
GOP 2012: It's still too early for most voters
It's still early days for the 2012 presidential election, and while the news media are avidly following the travel schedules, debate performances and general comings and goings of various candidates and potential candidates alike, most voters themselves have yet to focus on the election or the potential field. What's more, that's typical for this point in time in a presidential election cycle. ...

Pew 6/23
Pessimism About National Economy Rises
With a growing number of Americans saying they have been hearing "mostly bad" economic news, opinions about the current state of the national economy remain grim. ...

AP 6/23
Economic Worries Pose New Snags For Obama
Increasingly troubled by the economy, more Americans are convinced the country is headed in the wrong direction and fewer approve of President Barack Obama's economic stewardship. ...

Bloomberg 6/23
Romney Gets 59% Favorable Rating From Republicans
Mitt Romney, the frontrunner in the Republican presidential race, is in strong shape with his party's rank and file as the 2012 nomination race enters a more heated phase. ...

Gallup 6/23
Americans Most Confident in Military, Least in Congress
Americans continue to express greater confidence in the military than in 15 other national institutions, with 78% saying they have a "great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in it. ...

Bloomberg 6/22
Americans Worse Since Obama Elected
Two years after the official start of the recovery, the American people remain pessimistic about their current economic circumstances and longer-term prospects. ...

Gallup 6/22
Americans' Views on Immigration Holding Steady
Americans in 2011 continue to show a slight preference for lower immigration levels over keeping the levels the same, while a much smaller percentage favors increased immigration. ...

Pew 6/21
U.S. Image in Pakistan Following bin Laden Killing
Most Pakistanis disapprove of the U.S. military operation that killed Osama bin Laden, and although the al Qaeda leader has not been well-liked in recent years, a majority of Pakistanis describe his death as a bad thing. Only 14% say it is a good thing. ...

Kaiser (pdf) 6/21
HIV/AIDS At 30: A Public Opinion Perspective
... In 1987, two-thirds of Americans named HIV/AIDS as the most urgent health problem facing the country, a share that has declined steadily over the years, and sits at just 7 percent today. ...

Gallup 6/21
N.H. Debate Fails to Shake Up GOP Presidential Race
Gallup Daily tracking finds no major shake-up in the GOP presidential candidates' ratings among Republicans nationwide in the two weeks surrounding a New Hampshire debate that featured seven of the candidates. ...

Pew 6/21
Record Number Favors Removing Troops from Afghanistan
As President Obama prepares to announce his policy for drawing down U.S. forces in Afghanistan, the percentage of Americans who favor removing the troops as soon as possible has reached an all-time high in Pew Research Center surveys. ...

Gallup 6/20
22% Are Hesitant to Support a Mormon in 2012
Though the vast majority of Americans say they would vote for their party's nominee for president in 2012 if that person happens to be a Mormon, 22% say they would not, a figure largely unchanged since 1967. ...

Gallup 6/17
Congress' Job Approval Retreats to 17%
Seventeen percent of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, down seven percentage points from May's 24% approval rating, but similar to where it was in March and April. ...

Gallup 6/16
Voter Preferences for Obama, 'Republican' Remain Close
Forty-four percent of registered voters say they are more likely to vote for "the Republican Party's candidate" and 39% for Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election, according to Gallup's June update. ...

Pew 6/16
Social networking sites and our lives
Questions have been raised about the social impact of widespread use of social networking sites like Facebook, LinkedIn, MySpace, and Twitter. Do these technologies isolate people and truncate their relationships? Or are there benefits associated with being connected to others in this way? ...

NBC News 6/16
Less than half of GOP primary voters satisfied with field
... [W]ith about eight months until the first GOP nominating contests, less than half of Republican primary voters -- 45% -- say they are satisfied with their current crop of presidential candidates. ...

Gallup 6/15
Obama Approval Rally Largely Over
President Obama's job approval rating averaged 46% for the week ending June 12, a significant decline from his weekly averages for most of May and nearly back to the level before Osama bin Laden's death on May 1. ...

Sacramento Bee 6/15
CA: Support slipping for Jerry Brown, tax extensions
Gov. Jerry Brown still has public support for his tax plan, but the margin has slipped, and so has his public approval rating, according to a Field Poll released today. ...

Pew 6/14
Political Sex Scandals
Most Americans attribute the series of public sex scandals in recent years involving politicians more to the heightened scrutiny they face than to lower moral standards among elected officials. ...

Gallup 6/14
Bachmann: Above-Average Recognition, Intensity
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who formally announced her presidential candidacy at Monday night's Republican debate in New Hampshire, is currently recognized by 62% of Republicans nationwide. Her Positive Intensity Score of 18 essentially ties the better-known Mitt Romney's 19. ...

Adweek 6/14
Social Media, The New Exit Poll?
... Polling has always been an important element to any electoral bid, but now a new type of impromptu assessment is coming to the fore. Third parties, such as analytics startup Likester, are carving out a space for themselves by processing data that is instantaneously available. ...

Latino Decisions 6/14
Latinos divided on Obama and immigration
The number of Latino voters who intend to support President Barack Obama increased by 9% compared with those supporting the president in the previous impreMedia/Latino Decisions poll, conducted two months ago. However, the same group is profoundly divided in their opinions about the Obama administration's actions on immigration policy. ...

CBS News 6/13
Most want Medicare changes, but wary of GOP plan
A new CBS News poll shows that Americans have mixed feelings about what should happen to Medicare: While 53 percent say the program needs fundamental changes, 58 percent say it should continue the way it is set up now. ...

Gallup 6/13
Romney Support Up
Republicans' support for Mitt Romney as their party's 2012 presidential nominee has increased significantly to 24%, compared with 17% in late May. ...

Washington Post: Peyton M. Craighill 6/12
What matters to GOP voters
... Large majorities of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say traits such as gender, race and religion would not matter in their vote for president across a variety of traits tested in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. ...

Pew 6/10
Views of Middle East Unchanged by Recent Events
Major events in the Middle East -- including tensions between the U.S. and Israel, growing political unrest in many Arab countries, and the death of Osama bin Laden -- have had little effect on public attitudes toward the region. ...

Marist (pdf) 6/9
Majority in District Don't Want Cong. Weiner to Resign
As more salacious details about Congressman Anthony Weiner's sex scandal are revealed, politicians from both parties are calling for his resignation, but his constituents don't agree. ...

New York Times 6/9
Americans Still Split on Global Warming
Judging from an annual survey by researchers at Yale and George Mason universities, the American public is roughly as fractured in its attitudes toward climate change today as it was last year. ...

Washington Post 6/9
Americans torn over raising debt limit
A large majority of Americans say the U.S. economy would probably suffer serious harm if Congress fails to give the federal government more borrowing authority. But barely half support raising the government’s debt limit, even if lawmakers also sharply cut spending. ...

CBS News 6/9
Most Republicans don't want Palin to run for president
Most Republicans do not want to see former Alaska governor Sarah Palin enter the presidential race, a new CBS News poll finds. ...

Gallup 6/9
Democratic Party Affiliation Advantage Increases in May
In May, 45% of Americans identified as Democrats or said they were independent but leaned Democratic, compared with 39% who identified as Republicans or leaned Republican. ...

Fox News 6/8
Obama Approval Drops, Romney Tops GOP Preference
The president’s job rating has returned to pre-bin Laden raid levels, according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday. ...

Reuters 6/8
More oppose than support Republican Medicare plan
More Americans oppose than support a Republican plan to revamp the Medicare healthcare program for seniors, presenting a challenge to the party ahead of next year's presidential and congressional elections. ...

Pew 6/7
More Blame Wars for Nation's Debt
Far more Americans say that the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan has contributed a great deal to the nation's debt than say that about increased domestic spending or the tax cuts enacted over the past decade. ...

Gallup 6/7
Romney's Positive Intensity Up; Santorum's Name ID Low
Newly announced presidential candidate Mitt Romney's Positive Intensity Score among Republicans who recognize him is up to 17 this week, essentially tying him with Michele Bachmann. ...

ABC News 6/7
Romney, Palin See Boost; Obama Vulnerable
An announcement bump for Mitt Romney and a bus-tour boost for Sarah Palin put the pair atop the field for the Republican presidential nomination. But while their primary standings are similar, their broader prospects for election look vastly different. ...

ABC News 6/6
Criticism of War Eases, but Still a Majority
Public opposition to the war in Afghanistan has eased from its peak, likely influenced by the killing of Osama bin Laden. But most Americans continue to say the war has not been worth fighting -- and nearly three-quarters favor a substantial withdrawal of U.S. combat forces. ...

Ronald Brownstein 6/6
Obama's Ratings Settle Near 2008 Levels
Among favorable and unfavorable groups alike, President Obama's approval ratings in the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll are returning to the levels of support he attracted in his 2008 election, though the headwinds of economic slowdown will challenge his ability to hold those gains. ...

Gallup 6/6
Republicans More Unified Than Democrats on Abortion
As the 2012 Republican presidential contenders begin to hone their campaign messages and court social-issues voters, a Gallup analysis reveals the striking homogeneity of rank-and-file Republicans on abortion. ...

Boston Globe 6/6
MA: Support for state health law rises
Support for the Massachusetts universal health care law has increased since 2009, according to a poll of the state's residents -- even as the law has become the subject of blistering attacks in national and presidential politics, and health care costs soar. ...

Miller-McCune 6/5
On Immigration Polls, a Lot of People Lie
UC Berkeley sociologist Alexander Janus says social desirability pressures cause some liberals to lie about their true feelings on immigration -- even when asked in an anonymous poll. ...

Anchorage Daily News 6/5
Palin flaunts Alaska; Alaskans unsure about her
Former Gov. Sarah Palin's bus touring around the Lower 48 had a big image of the state of Alaska, and she's constantly talking up her home state. But back home, her main initiatives as governor continue to be under attack from fellow Republicans and her poll numbers aren't looking good. ...

Lake Research Partners (pdf) 6/3
Public Attitudes on Family Planning
Public opinion research over the past several years has consistently shown a remarkable level of support for family planning services and an overwhelming consensus that it should be widely accessible and free from restrictions. ...

Democracy Corps (pdf) 6/2
A Path to Democratic Ascendancy on the Economy
... This report shows that Democrats can win in 2012 if they focus on the new tough economic realities, offer a way to a better future, and show how different the choices are that progressives and conservatives will make. ...

Alan I. Abramowitz 6/2
Will Jewish Voters Abandon Obama in 2012?
[H]ow realistic is the belief that a substantial number of Jewish voters would abandon their traditional loyalty to the Democratic Party out of concern over Obama's support for the state of Israel? Based on an analysis of Jewish public opinion and voting behavior over the past two decades, the answer to this question appears to be that such a scenario is not very realistic for at least three reasons. ...

Pew 6/2
Republican Candidates Stir Little Enthusiasm
The emerging Republican presidential field draws tepid ratings. ... Of the party's best-known possible candidates, only Mitt Romney has broad potential appeal. ...

PPIC 6/2
Californians Say Voters Should Have Voice in Budget
The vast majority of Californians think voters should have a say in budget decisions this year, according to a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California. ...

New York Times: David Leonhardt 6/1
One Person, One Vote? Not Exactly
Two economists, Brian Knight and Nathan Schiff, set out a few years ago to determine how much Iowa, New Hampshire and other early-voting states affected presidential nominations. ... The economists estimated that an Iowa or New Hampshire voter had the same impact as five Super Tuesday voters put together. ...

Pew 6/1
Japanese Resilient, but See Economic Challenges Ahead
... The Japanese public applauds how the country's Self Defense Force has responded to the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, but is highly critical of the how the government and the Tokyo Electric Power Company have handled the multiple disasters. ...

Pew 6/1
Top Reaction to GOP Field -- 'Unimpressed'
Americans have decidedly negative reactions to the candidates running for the Republican presidential nomination. Asked for a single word to describe the GOP field, the top response is a variation on "unimpressed," with 42 mentions. ...

Charlie Cook 6/1
All in the Same Boat
... But you don't have to look far to sense that congressional Republicans have stepped in a deep pile of manure with their embrace of House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan's proposal to convert Medicare into a voucher program. Yet they seem to want to avoid looking at their shoes. ...

Herndon Alliance / Know Your Care (pdf) 6/1
Voters Do Not Want ACA Repealed, Oppose Ryan Budget
A new national poll conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research on behalf of the Herndon Alliance and Know Your Care shows that most voters oppose efforts to repeal the new healthcare law. Even fewer want to prevent the law from going into effect by defunding it, and there is strong opposition to the Ryan plan's proposed changes to Medicare. ...

Mark Mellman 6/1
Iowa, New Hampshire matter
... Since 1976, when proliferating primaries and caucuses became the basis for selecting convention delegates, every single nominee but one, in both parties, won either Iowa or New Hampshire. ...

Gallup 5/31
Newt Gingrich's Image Slides Among Republicans
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich's Positive Intensity Score dropped to 6 in the two weeks spanning May 16-29, down from 11 for May 9-22. ...

Democracy Corps 5/27
New York's 26th is not Alone
Republican leaders and conservative pundits have spun Democrat Kathy Hochul's upset win in New York's 26th Congressional District as exceptional . . . . But our national poll completed on Wednesday shows that New York's 26th is not alone. It is an advance indicator of a sharp pull back from Republicans, particularly those in the House. ...

Gallup 5/26
Romney's Appeal Spans Issues, Palin Leads on Values
Mitt Romney, one of the two leaders for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, receives generally equal support across Republican political issue groups. Sarah Palin, the other leader, has a more segmented appeal, with greater support among Republicans most concerned about social and moral issues. ...

Brendan Nyhan 5/26
Where Are the Obama Scandals?
... Since Watergate, presidential and executive branch scandal has been an inescapable feature of the American presidency, but the current administration has not yet suffered a major scandal, which I define as a widespread elite perception of wrongdoing. What happened, and what are the odds that the administration's streak will continue? ...

Rhodes Cook 5/26
Will Obama Need to Find His Inner 'Wilson?'
Take a poll of political pundits about next year’s presidential election, and most at this point would probably predict that President Barack Obama would win reelection, but with a reduced margin from 2008 in both the popular and electoral vote. Yet if that actually happens, it would be an historical rarity of the first order. ...

Gallup 5/26
Romney, Palin Lead Reduced GOP Field for 2012
Mitt Romney (17%) and Sarah Palin (15%) now lead a smaller field of potential Republican presidential candidates in rank-and-file Republicans' preferences for the party's 2012 nominee. ...

Resurgent Republic 5/25
Government Regulations and Economic Growth
As pessimism over the economy and job creation rises, voters clearly see too many federal government regulations as more of an economic threat than too few. ...

Kaiser Health News 5/25
Most Americans Oppose GOP Plan To Cut Medicaid
Most Americans oppose the House Republicans' plan to overhaul and slash funding of Medicaid, the state-federal program that covers 56 million low-income people, according to a poll being released today. ...